Monday, August 24, 2015




Coalitions are tricky. Overtly, the parties in a coalition seem united. But each coalition partner wants his word to  carry weight. This is so,even if one strong party leads the coalition of unequal partners.And imagine the plight of a coalition where there are two equally strong parties led by the most egoist leaders and a junior partner in the state, but is a national party whose dumb leader wants to lead the nation as the future Prime Minister.

I will narrate a funny anecdote, how such coalitions work and what happens to the people and its happily living inhabitants. 

The LAPD, the FBI, and the CIA

The LAPD, The FBI, and the CIA are all trying to prove that they are the best at apprehending criminals.
The President decides to give them a test. He releases a rabbit into a forest and each of them has to catch it.
The CIA goes in. They place animal informants throughout the forest. They question all plant and mineral witnesses. After three months of extensive investigations they conclude that rabbits do not exist.
The FBI goes in.

After two weeks with no leads they burn the forest, killing everything in it, including the rabbit, and they make no apologies.  The rabbit had it coming.
The LAPD goes in.

They come out two hours later with a badly beaten bear. The bear is yelling: "Okay!  Okay! I'm a rabbit!  I'm a rabbit!


Yes! We are talking about Bihar and the opportunistic alliance that the vily Mulayam cobbled together. His intentions were suspect from the beginning. Already on test, the coalition partners are behaving like the three law enforcing authorities in USA.

On test, Nitish says the whole coalition is nothing but a farce and there are no rabbits that can be found in the jungle. Yes! It is unbelievable that he considers it a sin to ally with Lalu and Congress and appoints the masked Kejriwal to boss over them and in the process ignores welfare of Bihar, to prove his superiority.

On test, Congress, as usual burns everything, as it burns files where scam details are stored and say "there are no scams". They want to prove they are superior to Lalu, Nitish and AK on corruption issue.

On test, Lalu shows a bear and makes people believe it is a rabbit, with his "Jungle Raj" tactics. For him, bail is like clean chit just, as of now, Kejriwal too thinks so.

These three guys Nitish, Lalu and Rahul are already on the one-up-man-ship show of strength. Just imagine the plight of people if these guys get power to hand.



Yes! The Trojan Horses! They are metaphorical Trojan Horses in public life. The deception, the treachery, the backstabbing in public life goes as per a schematic ischemia . How many are such Trojan Horses in Nitish camp now? Countless, but we shall count the apparent and the covert.

Let me tell you a funny story how reliable people work together never believing the other.

The Young Assistant

In France, the young assistant priests do not live in the main rectory. That is reserved for the priest and his housekeeper. One day the priest invited his new young assistant priest to have dinner at the rectory. While being served, the young priest noticed how shapely and lovely the housekeeper was and down deep in his heart he wondered if there was more between the priest and the housekeeper.
After the meal was over, the middle-aged priest assured the young priest that everything was purely professional...that she was the housekeeper and cook and that was that. About a week later the housekeeper came to the priest and said, "Father, ever since the new assistant came for dinner I have not been able to find the beautiful silver gravy ladle. You don't suppose he took it, do you?" The priest said, "Well, I doubt it but I'll write him a letter."

So he sat down and wrote, "Dear Father, I'm not saying you did take the gravy ladle and I'm not saying you did not take the gravy ladle. But the fact remains that it has been missing since you were here for dinner."

The young assistant received the letter and he answered it as follows: "Dear Father priest, I'm not saying that you do sleep with the housekeeper and I'm not saying that you do not sleep with the housekeeper. But I do know for sure that if you slept in your own bed you would find the gravy ladle."


Surprised? What does this story have to do with the Lalu -Nitish-Rahul coalition cobbled loosely by the never-reliable Mulayam.

Come to the last part of the story. Nitish says, "Lalu! I do not say you have led a Jungle Raj. I do not say you have not led a Jungle Raj. But see the badly bruised Bihar. Rahul! I do not say your UPA government was corrupt. I do not say your UPA government was not corrupt. But see the burned out files to erase the evidence."

Lalu and Rahul say together, " Nitish! We do not say you have developed the state. We do not say you have not developed the state. But see Industry, Infra, crime rate, migration, density of population and the 25% growth in population as per 2011 census."

But all together say, "We are allies and doubt not each other and we will prove this on 30th August in a joint meeting. It is like the FBI, CIA and LAPD doing their duty as a cohesive force to deal with criminality. Or, it is like mutual disrespect the Priest, his cook and the young Assistant show each other covertly, even though they respect each other publicly. " Meeting on stage and fighting behind is all about alliance politics and the Trojan Horses.

Let us just recollect the story of the Trojan Horse

The Trojan Horse is a tale from the Trojan War about the subterfuge that the Greeks
 used to enter the city of Troy and win the war. In the canonical version, after a fruitless 10-year siege, the Greeks constructed a huge wooden horse, and hid a select force of men inside. The Greeks pretended to sail away, and the Trojans pulled the horse into their city as a victory trophy. That night the Greek force crept out of the horse and opened the gates for the rest of the Greek army, which had sailed back under cover of night. The Greeks entered and destroyed the city of Troy, decisively ending the war.


It is all about subterfuge, the war tactics, the deceit, the treachery and the destruction of the enemy. Lalu, Congress and Nitish were at war till the other day. Now, we find Lalu and Congress in Nitish territory.


Now, who are the Trojan Horses, that are out to destroy the Nitish Territory "lock, stock and barrel" believing that it is in the DNA of Bihar to swallow the words of this cunning trio "hook, line and sinker". Let us go by the order of the most deadly Trojan Horse to the least deadly here.


Shocked? I too was, while writing this. If the Dr. Jekyll, Nitish is  the Good Samaritan, the Mr. Hyde, Nitish is the Trojan horse. Till the other day, people of Bihar saw in day light a development oriented Nitish out to destroy the criminal and corrupt elements in the state led by Lalu and Congress. But suddenly, in 2013, they saw another Mr. Nitish, an arrogant, an egoist, a jealous and a selfish Mr. Nitish. What Nitish expected was the character of Mr. Hyde was successfully hidden from public eye. But once Modi entered the fray, he could not hide behind the veil any more. His arrogance saw his destruction like that of Ravana and Duryodhana of Itihas. I use the analogy with full conscience of what I am saying. There was no reason why he should have projected himself as the King of Akhand Bharat, when Dharmaraja was the apparent choice. I did not see reason why he wanted to stealthily take away the pious Development Mantra of Modi, like Ravana airlifted Maa Sita. God judged. His mask was unveiled and he was destroyed. Now he joined hands with his bête noirs, the enemies of Bihar development, the mockers of democratic values, the perpetuators of Jungle and Corrupt Raj ,respectively for his personal ambition and out of sheer jealousy for Modi. Who else is a bigger Trojan Horse in his camp, other than his own multiple personality trait, that he has never taken care to cure.


Until a few months ago, none would have expected Lalu to join forces with Nitish. He may have expected NDA to send feelers, but Modi is such a strong personality that he has not allied with Jayalalitha, KCR, Mayawati or Jagan. He knows his moves well in the game of Political Chess. So, alternate was Nitish. Or both would have ended with 15% and 8% vote share respectively and less than 35 seats together. (their joining together may not alter the ground situation as of now). So, Mulayam played the elderly statesman role. He convinced Lalu to accept Nitish as CM candidate. Anyone who knows Mulayam personally will not fall for his tantrums. Not Indians anymore. He has in his view the UP election later. If the experiment succeeds he repeats it in UP. If it fails, he goes soft on NDA, so he is safe both ways. Lalu accepted and said he swallowed poison.

The game started then. The think-tank in RJD revolted openly. The hundred seats offer is not acceptable. Direct messages are coming from cadres that they will not vote JDU, come what may. Should we think that all this is without concurrence of Lalu and Mulayam. Added to this the SP Chief, who was silent when seats were distributed equally between the JDU and RJD, prodded his state unit into a revolt asking for 12 seats at least. Their vote share was 2.89% (if I remember correctly) in 2010 and they won seats. It was better than NCP, at 1.20% and no seat in 2010 on its own. But NCP too is demanding more seats. Lalu gave an assurance that 12 seats would be condeded and added as an epilogue, "If it is not to my relative, to whom shall I give,. If JDU is not giving I will give from my quota!" Anyone who follows politics knows this is an unacceptable proposition and also an inescapable bait. If Nitish does not concede, Lalu will, further aggravating revolt. If Nitish concedes, revolt in his camp will aggravate along with RJD revolt with blessings from Lalu.  It will be double whammy. This gives rise to a doubt that even Lalu is helping NDA through backdoor, without losing his political clout. Post elections, the real Lalu will come out to save his skin. But will Modi accept his overtures? Anyone who knows Modi says a firm, "No".

Will you accept that Lalu is the next most dangerous enemy with a dagger in the already thorny bed of political future of Nitish?


Anyone with knowledge of the political journey of the Owaisi family will be surprised to see his present stand. His pathological hatred for RSS and BJP was not unknown. His love of Congress and other secular parties was also not unknown. For many in the old city of Hyderabad, some Hindus including, his word was sermon. Besides, growing politically the family did as much to help to the people there by social work as they did harm by keeping the pot of communal disharmony burning.

As an analyst I was not surprised at his attacks on pseudo-secular grouping and said they destroyed the Musilm psyche. There is a reason. Politicians affiliated to religious groupings have started realising that  ground level opinion is slowly undergoing a change in perception that Congress has kept them under perennial fear and poverty showing the demon of communal flare up if Modi takes over. There is perceptible change in the communal situation in the country now. There are no major riots nor is any oppression of the communities is taking place. If this slow change gets faster, the very existence of some politicians surviving on vote banks will be in question. Instead, those who realised the message "Sab Ka saath sanb Ka vikaas" early are aligning with Modi. Owaisi cant do that. But he can spoil the apple cart of enemies of Modi, retain his image as saviour of his community, attain national stature and if need arises in future grow as national alternative to BJP or join their grouping and help his community. His stand also will ensure a sense of security in his community against a fabricated majority fear. That fear remains ; only the player changes.

So, he did not join the Pariwar, he did not sit on the wall, he entered the fray, he entered with full force and would be changing fortunes in at least 40 seats. What more does NDA want? Some Media Pundits started whispering he was planted by NDA. He will never play second fiddle to BJP. That eats into his roots. He is surviving, bringing out the truth of Congress face and making all efforts as an alternate in National politics. But he will not be an Arvind Kejriwal to shift stand frequently. He is going to slug it out till 2019. If he grows, it is OK. If not, he has his own standing politically. He is too shrewd to fall into anyone's trap.

So, by spoiling the party of Pariwar, he has proven the third ominous Trojan Horse in the Troy City of Nitish


He already played spoil sport. First, he made Lalu accept Nitish as CM candidate by force, thus making sure the Pariwar remained disunited and Nitish would not be an alternative to him or his family in National Politics. Second, he kept quiet on seat sharing until it was done and then pushed his state unit to the forefront for seats. "Give or lose a chunk of Yadav votes" is his message. He distanced himself from the Parliament strategy of Congress quoting alibis. He is playing cards close to his chest for his survival in UP polls. He can chage stance at the drop of a hat. Who else can be a Trojan Horse, with almost 3% vote share?


Can we really call Congress a Trojan Horse? I will call the party a "Trojan Donkey". Even it goes to the Troy city of Nitish, there will be few foot soldiers and even these are so frustrated they are unwilling to fight and even if they are willing to fight they have no leader to lead them.

With so many Trojan Horses and a Trojan Donkey, Nitish can not fight the election. He has to fight the internal enemies first and then a powerful army of the adversary with a strong leader.

Many Media Pundits are still banking on caste equations and religious equations, My analysis is that all these will go for a toss in view of the internal power politics in the Pariwar , entry of an outsider and the virtual maiming of Congress. As days go by, value of Nitish is going down fast. It is his own doing.

Nitish should learn a thing or two. He should be amenable to good advice. He failed on that count because of his alter-ego. He counted upon his popularity a tad bit too much. He should have read Winston Churchill.

Churchill said

"Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen."

And he is trying to appease crocodiles. They are waiting for a chance to swallow him. At least now, he can jump back on the tree instead of falling in the trap of the male crocodile who wants to feed his sweet heart to his relation. He can contest all 243 seats and get defeated graciously. That will keep him politically afloat. Or he will go down in the political history of India as the most unscrupulous politician next to Arvind Kejriwal.

An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last." –Winston Churchill

Mr. Nitish Kumar, alternatively, as Winston Churchill said, "If you are going through hell, keep going."