Wednesday, August 19, 2015


As we move to the seventh and concluding part of the blog series, "It is Modi All The Way in Bihar", positive trends are emerging from there. The few BJP leaders I have had personal interaction with, confirmed it is, in fact, very encouraging on the ground with Modi rocking and Nitish-Lalu-Congress Pariwar cracking. Pawar has his own issues, with many of his leaders being charge-sheeted, arrested and being investigated in various scams. If he finally decides to join the gang as number four, it will be Gang of Four out of which only Nitish can not be accused of corruption.

But recent statistics on crime released by the Bihar Police Web-Site indicate that Nitish has started ignoring governance after he has come out of NDA and the crime graph is slowly on upward swing. This is fodder for NDA campaign that joining hands with Lalu will only worsen the situation and as I have always said youth are thinking and not following diktats of caste leaders. They have bread and butter, they want better living and as I have said 58% of Bihar population are below 30 years of age., There is silence from Pshephologists and Media about the outcome in Bihar. They are in shock at the way Modi is drawing huge crowds. The crowds at a government function in Ara, that has consisted mostly of youth and the response Modi has got there is the final nail in the coffin of these apologists.

So, Media started accepting grudgingly that it would be advantage NDA on ground. They do not castigate Nitish for joining hands with Lalu, the convict or Congress, the corrupt. No! They want to take shelter under Modi's announcement of Rs.1.25 lakh crore package and call it a bait or bribe. This is hypocrisy. As I said earlier, the situation turned in favour of NDA soon after Pariwar was cobbled together by MSY who eyed Nitish as a competitor in the national scene. In politics there is no brotherhood that determines the goals of leaders. Defeat of Nitish in Bihar will only help Mulayam, as he will be the only one remaining in the fray in opposition camp, vying for the post with Pawars, Lalus, Jayas etc., facing the heat of charges. Chandrababu is ruled out as he has his own problem of retaining power in AP in 2019, with rivals baying for his blood. MSY played his cards well by pitting Lalu by the side of Nitish and shooting two birds with one shot! It is viam vitae (way of life) in politics.

Second factor that confirmed my analysis was the interview, Mr.Raghuveer Prasad Singh, gave to ABP News. It reported that while talking to them, Mr. Singh, attacked MSY for hurrying the seat sharing and that RJD was eligible for more seats, as JDU was getting the CM post. I wrote that RJD was trying to maim JDU in the state and to occupy their space. This is bellum nervorum ( Battle of Nerves) between the two Mandal, Socialist and Casteist parties, with a secular mask.

Third factor is the entry of Asaduuddin Owaisi into the field. Either he demands his pound of flesh (number of seats they can not concede) from Pariwar in Muslim dominated constituencies or fields his own candidates. The man who tasted first blood in Maharashtra would  not stop there. He knows that Muslims in many states have stopped believing in pseudo secular parties and the two options left for them is to go with "Sab Ka Saath, Sab Ka Vikaas", an olive branch offered by Modi or go with a saviour in the form of articulate Owaisi. This is further blow to Pariwar, as slowly people are veering around to the view that only one of these two can save them from poverty and insecurity. The former possibility may take time but the latter possibility seems an immediate relief. So there will be three way division of Muslim vote. Division of votes was a fait accompli even before this battle started.

Fourth factor in favour of NDA is the confusion in the leadership of RJD and JDU. Till now, there is no joint attack on Modi/NDA on a single issue with common factors by the two top leaders. This leads to confusion among rank and  file who do not see eye to eye, even now. And the arrogance of Nitish is reflection of his alter ego that it is either me or destruction of Bihar. It is sending wrong message that even the pliant Media has stopped covering him as a hero. And where is Bihar in their talks. They talk, eat, sleep, dream, wake up with Modi in mind. Does not this hurt the pride of Biharis that they have totally ignored them and are concentrating on a statesman politician that is taking nation to greater heights. Voters think and vote. Politicians should not take voters for granted forever. We are now a global village. Information on other parts is reaching fast. A Lalu or Nitish might not have realised this but the two Modis realised fast.

The fall of JDU from its heights in 2010 to its lows in 2014 was phenomenal. One year or twenty months is too short a period in politics to revive any party when the adversary is very strong and knows the rules of the game like a connoisseur. So, the vote percentage of JDU is certain to slip further as I have already stated in earlier blogs. Further, Nitish antagonized many of his own leaders with his alter ego. Manjhi is the tip of iceberg. As polls near, more will shift loyalty to BJP or LJP. RJD will shrink too or add a few percentage points here and there. But it seems that they too dropped the hat before the battle has begun. It will be either absolute power in the hands of RJD or total surrender before NDA for Lalu to see that he escapes with less punishment. NDA will not compromise on criminals. And, his position is too unsettling as of now. Further, Lalu too distanced from strong Yadav leaders to save his skin from the noose.

Caste equations do not work either in Bihar or UP this time around, as they have worked earlier unless a new, non-controversial face shows up like that of VP Singh in 1990s. It is ruled out. Nitish made it as development oriented poll. Lalu has no agenda of his own. Congress has Rahul as agenda, that is the biggest negative.  So, it is Nitish Versus Modi only with Modi at least 75 points ahead of Nitish out of 100. Game is almost over for Nitish in Bihar this time around.

Congress is non ens (non-entity) in Indian politics and the undue projection of Rahul as the future leader, has made it a laughing stock. Who will bet on a clown as a  Crown Prince? End of Nanda Dynasty in the hands of a Chanakya and Chandragupta, is in the offing before 2019. And in Bihar, till now, no national leader dared to interfere even in seat-sharing. That shows the position of the party. The less said is the better. Even core voters are shifting as has happened in AP.

One significant statement of Lalu was ignored by Media either by oversight or intentionally. He demanded scrapping of NOTA in Bihar. So, he is nervous that hard core supporters of RJD and JDU who do not want to vote NDA will either abstain or prefer NOTA. He accepted defeat, in a single statement. The demand of Lalu to publish the Caste Census shows his nervousness further. He knows that all the caste voters who have voted these Mandal parties earlier are now a divided lot with BJP  too playing caste card, without as much being branded as a casteist party (it was branded communal and now Owaisi is snatching the card). So, he wants to play the VP Singh Card by bringing all OBCs under an umbrella. It is his nervous reaction to the surge of BJP.

To conclude my series, I will quote what Hindustan Times reported today on Bihar. HT is known to be a Congress paper and an ardent critic of Modi. Most of the columnists that are anti-Modi are given prime space in the pages of Hindustan Times.

This is what, it has  said today. The paper misleads with Head Lines always. Now, it says, "DEVELOPMENT AGENDA DOES THE TRICK TO BJP". They know, with one announcement voters do not change their electoral choice. So, it was in the air for long. They are searching for alibis. Now, they got one.

" Prime Minister Narendra Modi effectively took the poll battle to the opposition camp on Tuesday as he unveiled a package of Rs.1.25 lakh crore  for Bihar, creating a development agenda bigger than what CM Nitish Kumar could have ever hoped for. (A day earlier I tweeted that Modi would be announcing a package of Rs.1.25 lakh crore to Bihar. If my small brain could predict this, sitting in Mumbai as an ordinary member of BJP, why could not these Media Pundits and the CM  anticipate? I made a calculation. He said, "more than Rs 50,000 crore" in the last meeting. I guessed Rs.75,000 crore as the nearest high figure. An additional sum of 56,000 cr. on NH improvement was in the offing. It took the total to Rs.1.256 lakh crore. It was simple arithmetic.)

Further, HT reports

"This move attempted to change political discourse in Bihar ..... to Modi Versus Nitish and justified NDA's decision in not projecting a CM face. By ...... BJP has created immense advantage ahead of the ... poll just for 243 seats. If the development debate (that Nitish started in 2014) is neutralised the NDA is assured of a victory."

This is a confirmation of my earlier and present prediction that BJP on its own will get majority as in 2014 LS Poll and will win 3/4ths of seats easily. But, I too keep my fingers crossed as the is not Astrology, but Astrologic and not Psephology but Psephologic.