IT IS MODI ALL THE WAY - PART 26- WHY PARIWAR MAY LOSE HEAVILY- SEVEN FACTORS
Lalu knows Nitish loses. Is he sad? No! Certainly not. In the Mahabharata, if Duryodhana lost, would Shakuni have been sad? No! It might have resulted in his death too! But revenge is more than life or a victory for a born-enemy in the war. For an outsider, (not opinion poll pundits that work for money), the scene replicates Shalya on the chariot of Karna! In Telugu they say,
కర్ణుడి చావుకి కారణమెవ్వరు? (Who is responsible for the death of Karna?). He might have been a rightful, brave, courageous warrior but he was on the wrong side. Nitish is not as rightful as Karna. He back-stabbed Fernadez, Sharad Yadav, Narendra Modi, Sushil Modi and Jeetan Ram Manjhi. He once pierced the knife into Lalu's heart. Lalu's only aim is to make his two sons turn his future heirs in the party and if chance comes their way, twenty years hence, see them as CM or Dy.CM. He wont go beyond that. His wit is lost so too his grit. His body language says that.
"I’m a fighter. I believe in the eye- for- an- eye business. I’m no cheek turner. I got no respect for a man who won’t hit back. You kill my dog, you better hide your cat."
This quote on "fight for revenge" by the all-time famous Muhammad Ali shows, how revenge plays on heart and mind.
Sometimes, it should be rule of war that one has to see somebody up close and get to know him before he can shoot him.
Lalu is employing this war trick. Lalu follows this maxim in letter and in spirit. For him, moral values are like animal fodder for humans.
“The girl you marry and the woman you must make a life with are two different people.” This is very true in politics.
So, anyone with little political knowledge will understand that the Pariwar of JDU, RJD and Congress are losing the polls. They do not simply lose, they are already swept away. If it has been Modi wave that has swept them out of race in in May, 2014, this time it is negative waves that are pushing Nitish to the precipice. If Modi waves are pushing him nearer the deep fall, Lalu wave is puling him down. Congress has no wave and hence, no push or pull. It is an plane parked in Aspen.
I have already told many a time that I am not a poll analyst nor a psephologist. So, I can not guess who gets how many seats, which caste will vote whom, which religion swings which side. I mostly depend on the news that is appearing or not appearing on Media or in the Press. Sometimes, news that is not appearing on the Media/in the Press tells more stories than that appears. Elections are just eight days away. Campaign for first phase closes in seven days, leaving today. It is time we analyze things why Pariwar is losing heavily. In my previous blogs I said NDA would be winning. I predicted 47% of the vote share if the voting figure would reach the LS figure. More the voter turn out more advantage NDA. Less turnout too will work for NDA as it gives signal that most JDU, RJD voters have stayed away due to mutual recrimination. Let me put forth a few points that predict that the Pariwar have irretrievably lost in this poll.
1.NEWS THAT MISSED APPEARING IN THE PRESS
Pulse of upcoming polls is known in Media coverage. We all know ninety percent of Media run anti-Modi campaigns. The ten percent are either neutral or pro-Modi. Human mentality is that their brains absorb and assimilate critiques faster and react faster.So, if there is nothing positive to report on opposition, they concentrate on the negatives that may swing voters. It too may boomerang sometimes.
Imagine a hypothetical situation where MGB is far ahead of NDA in Bihar and Lalu, Nitish and Son and Mother are drawing huge, responsive crowds. If we ignore meetings too, if there is a ground talk of the MGB sweeping or is ahead, much of the time in the Media and much of the space in the Press will have covered the same, until we are exhausted. Today, you find little to report on that except quoting few opinion polls that say it will be neck and neck with NDA little ahead. In state elections, it was a practice to cover constituency -wise position. Now, it is missing. Yesterday in Sonia meeting, RJD gave a slip so much so that the local RJD candidate just greeted Sonia and left. Even JDU was not represented in full. No Media house reported that all was not well between these three parties. If Paswan, Manjhi etc., skip Modi meeting that would be blaring 24x7 on Media. Compare this to the photo that went viral when Advani was caught in a moment of turning his head to the side when Modi was greeting him and the news was that the differences were ominous and the camp of Advani would sabotage Modi. Most of the Media/Press is covering macro level statements, incidents. In many anti-Modi news papers I read, Bihar gets little space and little coverage in favor of MGB. So, Media/Press caught the fringe news like attack in UP. There is a government in UP. Attack should go there. But it revolves around Modi. Politicians swarm the tiny village so much so they are deprived of daily earning. Polarization attempts are in full swing with help from pliant Media. The first ominous signal to MGB. When polarization happens counter polarization happens. This is two way though who starts it remains in the realm of speculation, as it has happened many times in the Old City of Hyderabad until NTR read the Riot Act to control warring Congress groups, creating communal flare ups.
2.MULTI CORNERED CONTESTS:
When MGB was formed thrre was so much enthusiasm and hope in the air and air waves that the MGB is ahead in all parameters. But the Yadav trio poured water on fire and doused it. Lalu tactfully cornered Nitish by side- lining MSY and Pawar. They left. None expected Communists with influence in a number of constituencies and Maoist influence in some areas to add to the discomfiture of MGB. Modi's call to youth not to be lured by Maoists was to lure away Communist vote banks and MGB vote banks they may cut into. A 3% definite loss for MGB here and another 3% by the third front. To add to the confusion, Owaisi has jumped into the field and he can not be under estimated. By whatever calculation you take 5% of the hard core Muslim vote shifts to a Muslim Party. Here NDA has little influence. 4% of this will go from MGB. The second bad omen for MGB.
3. POLES APART:
Lalu made a significant observation that he would be the pole in Bihar politics while simultaneously reassuring Nitish. Nitish wants to pitch development as agenda to counter Modi storm and Lalu wants to play caste card. And ten years is too short a period for people to forget their mutual diatribe. Even youth can not forget the way they atacked each other in 2010 or 2014. Lalu is mostly concentrating on his strongholds and his sons' constituencies. Nitish is lost in the melee. Rahul went for a week end and returned after two week ends. Whst is cooking none knows. Lalu is dependent on Yadav vote that is divided into parts. Nitish almost stopped referring Lalu by name. Is it good augury for MGB?. Certainly not.
4. MODI JAGGERNAUT:
The rally addressed by Modi in Banka, where NDA lost in 2014, was huge success and response was gung ho. Media expected this rally may turn out a dampener. Compared to that, today Sonia rallies attracted luke warm response. Even Lalu's jokes have tutned into counter jokes. Rahul went missing to return today. Yesterday Sonia rally was skipped by RJD and JDU had token presence. This is the worst signal for any pre-poll alliance, when each party fights for its survival or one-up-man-ship. Cadres were already drawing swords. This kind of touch-me-not attitude will send the most negative signals to the cadres thus driving the swing voters to NDA.
5. OPINION POLLS:
Two opinion polls conducted by the same agency for two sponsors gave NDA a 20 seat jump in 15 days. Electors do not change choices every day. If you talk to a cross section of people 90% of the people decide and vote on the day of polling to their choicest party. Once polls are announced they decide on the choice and forget and get absorbed in daily chores or serials on TV. Those deeply involved in the muddle only keep talking. It is just figure jugglery by this agency that they have changed opinion in one or two weeks. Opinion polls have become tools in the hands of political parties to lure the fence sitters. But once voters saw through the game, this too lost relevance. Times change; so too voter thinking changes. Other opinion polls too, except one, gave neck and neck fight between the two, forgetting that there are five coalitions working their way through. At least Owaisi and Communists are trying to expand base and without much fanfare, MSY led coalition will divide votes of MGB, with blessings from Lalu. This is a major negative for the MGB.
6. JIGSAW PUZZLE OF CASTES
In most of the states, voting pattern depends on caste. It is more so in Bihar and UP, given the Mandal Politics and the way Lalu and Company used caste as a tool. If you read news in various papers, opinions differ on the support base of Lalu in Yadavs and Muslims. Some say, much of the vote shifted base and some others say the 14.5% vote of Yadvs is solidly behind Lalu. This is all presumptive thinking. As Modi said migration helped locals know life style in other states and other countries and aspirations of youth changed. They no more want to farm in the small land they own. They are leaving one sibling to look after the property and are migrating as taxi drivers, construction workers in other cities. And life every where is better than that in Bihar. The message reaches back that the crooked caste politics played by politicians kept them backward and in other states life is rosier. They too think. And the other factor is fear of Yadav resurgence in other very backward castes. They too think twice. And over a period the vote preferences of castes change. All voters of a particular community do not vote en bloc. There are self interest groups who find that patronizing various parties will be helpful, whoever is in power. This is a shift that effects MGB most, as Lalu depends on caste and not on development and he is over shadowing Nitish.
If we recall why Nitish roped in AK, it was for migrant votes. He had grandiose plans to visit cities like Mumbai, Nagpur, Delhi, Pune, Gujarat cities with AK to woo migrants. In the meantime law makers off AAP migrated to courts and jails. He lost his USP. The other day he was so confused that he said he supported none in Bihar, later retracted to support Nitish. Supporting Nitish is equivalent to supporting Lalu and Congress, both corrupt. Migrants and their families voted in large numbers to NDA in 2014. Nothing much changed since except two CMs in Bihar. So, Nitish almost drew cold feet in wooing migrants as there might have been booing in these meetings. Another blow to MGB.
Many other factors that will crop up in future will dent the image of Nitish and Lalu will play his cards to be in the number two position, relegating Nitish to the backwaters of Brahmaputra. Nitish will rue through out his political life that this election was one that should not have taken place.