Sunday, October 25, 2015





I wanted to complete the series on Bihar polls with my last blog and declared so. But politics has penetrated my veins. Second phase of polling over, I thought it was time to revive the series. I stand by my analysis that NDA is going to sweep polls and it is going to be one sided whatever Media and doomsayers in our Right Wing too predict on Social Media. Some pointers strengthening my analysis emerged during this period that invigorated my energy; it never sapped, of course. I moved  beyond optimism to euphoria. The opposition naturally is living in Utopia.


When Kejriwal tweeted in a hurry soon after second phase of polling started in Bihar that Modi was losing heavily and that he got reports from Bihar even before EC got any report on the poll, it did not surprise me. I knew that these guys were paranoid as the first phase went NDA way totally and they wanted to create a perception that NDA was losing. Who cares Kejrwal, who is leading a bunch of corrupt elements, four of whom were already jailed and bailed out? Most Biharis in Delhi would go against his advice as he proved a liability on the nation.


I found an interesting quote on opinion polls and the way Media overplays the perception from its view point, rather than the ground realities.

"If the world Series runs until election day, thee networks will run the first one-half inning and project the winner "-Lindsey Nelson.

What a suitable quote in the Indian context? I saw a recent news item. We cant say it is not paid news as observers, but election commission should act on this. The Headline in HT, written by Prashanth Jha, the ubiquitous secular reporter says. "Mahaghaatbandhan wins perception battle". And he goes on saying that MGB could create through pliant media a perception that the first two phases were that of MGB and that all the undecided voters (without taking into account these undecided voters opinion polls made predictions?) would vote MGB and hence, it was again a close contest and NDA was so afraid of the MGB surge that Modi was made to address more meetings. He wrote many more things in the victory of perception. I remembered Duryodhana, who won a perception battle by arraying a larger army than that of Pandavas, with Karna, Drona and the invincible Bhishma on his side he said he won perception battle. But in the real war, one and only warrior Arjuna, with the help of Dharma on his side won the real battle. Hope paid news writers noted this better before writing what their perception was. He was particularly enthused at all the controversies that Media created and their effect on voter mindset. (He gives three hoots to national security, nationalism). He has the least perception that Media penetration in India is very less even in the most developed states. And if that were true no RJD voter would vote to JDU afteer the Video showing a Tantrik whom Niitish met said "Lalu Muradabad" and Nitish ever went on board decrying the Sadhu. Hope media knows better the bitter truth.

And today, TOI reported about a video in which Nitish met a Tantrik who kissed him (Who was gay?) and said Laloo Murdabad. And the same name-sake Prashanth comments that all politicians including Modi meet Tantriks (He did not say any one kissed any one) and that this Laloo Murdabad was not so serious an issue. So far so good. So, Media is trying its level best to keep the morale of MGB high. Why should it do so? As the morale is too low, obviously.  They are losing heavily and are using Media to play a role as in Delhi. Bihar is not Delhi and 4000 villages have no power and for those who have power there is no supply.

And the reporter says that the meager crowds in Nitish, Lalu meetings are indication of their micro management skills. Even at micro level BJP leaders are drawing huge crowds. And yesterday, NDTV tweeted about a meeting Amit Shah addressed. In the news item it is said half the ground was not filled. When Nitish can manage with 1000 people in a meeting, why cant Amit Shah do the same thing? They want to project NDA was losing.

This reflects losers' mentality.


If we recall the Lok Sabha polls in 2014, a lot of smear campaign was run on Modi. Each of his words was twisted out of context. Each move of Advani and Company was used as a weapon to beat Modi with. Be it not accepting Skull Cap, saying if a puppy runs under the car, Advani looking to a side in a moment of involuntary movement, Jaswanth Singh resigning etc., were used by Media to target Modi and he was out. We know the result now. And Congress is not unaware that negative campaign will ultimately benefit the targeted leader. They used this many times using Indira, Rajiv, Sonia et al.  But Congress is a dead horse. There is no hope of revival. It does not call the shots. A criminally convicted leader calls the shots.

This is a kind of self-goaling like self-inking or self-gunning.


Many might not have read much into it. But Congress played a gamble. Just two days before Modi was to inaugurate the AP Capital, Rahul wrote to PM demanding him to declare Special status to AP. Modi did not do that. Not only that, he also skipped announcing special package too. The gamble of Congress was to say that Bihar was ignored though the demand was long pending and if he announced special package that would have been more than to Bihar, they would have gone shopping their achievement and at the same time saying that a BIMARU state was not given as much as a new state, that was smaller in size.. Now that it was not announced, Congress unleashed a spate of agitations .

The funniest part of it all was that Congress was planning to go to the Railway Stations where from
Bihar bound trains would start and tell people of Bihar not to vote to NDA as special status was not given to AP. Very few people from AP have voting rights in Bihar, as it is not destination for migration. Why will Biharis not vote NDA if AP was not given something? Fools' paradise!

This is called Confusion and confounded confusion in one of the MGB parties.


“The media is the right arm of anarchy.” 
Media would not have made so much noise without reason. The question any right thinking citizen, excluding ultra leftists, asks is why is the Media making noises in a vacuum though they knew that such noise helped Modi earlier? Are they nincompoops? No. They have a reason. They believe that Modi magic is on the wane. It is their first fault. It is not on the wane but more and more people including traditional Mandal voters started believing that if not for Modi's acumen, nation would have been in embers with the kind of negative propaganda being unleashed. There may be a negative perception on some leaders of BJP but most fortunately RSS has become a national symbol of patriotism even in states where it had no presence earlier. Second guess they make is that if it has helped in Delhi, why does it not help in Bihar? Delhi was a different ball game. In Bihar, it takes a month before news penetrates the remote corners. It is a big state not a big municipality. Media is caught on wrong foot again.

Our Political Institutions work remarkably well. they are designed to clang against each other. The noise in democracy is at work.- Michael Novak

Noises on various fringe issues were made. There was a concerted effort to show that intolerance of majority community was on the rise due to the taking over of a Right Wing Nationalist government at the Centre. How far is is true? Majority of Indians, to whichever religion they belong to, are more tolerant than the intelligentsia that are trying to foment trouble by pitting one community against the other by a sustained campaign of sorts.

“If everything is amplified, we hear nothing.”
― Jon Stewart
In the amplified negative campaign, people stopped hearing what Media says or ignoring them. Many are seeing through their game. Negative campaign and over dependence of MGB on Media boomeranged effectively and their game is over.
It started with Hardik Patel. Support was immediately extended to him by Nitish until he proved a liability. And once Mohan Bhagavat expressed similar sentiments as Hardik, a negative campaign was unleashed. You can observe that Mohan Bhagavat expressed that reservation policy needs a revisit. Hardik said "Give us reservations or cancel reservations". Whose views were more ominous? But Media sees what it wants to see, hears what it wants to hear. All this negative campaign was a result of paranoia in the minds of MGB and Media. Media agenda is to weaken hands of Modi so they can escape punishment for their earlier misdemeanors. Is it not enough to say MGB is facing total rout?

“The bias of the mainstream media is toward sensationalism, conflict, and laziness.”
― Jon Stewart

Then Dadri incident. It was in UP the crime happened. But UP government was not touched. An incident involving Dalits in Haryana, immediately BJP government there was targeted. Is it not indication that the agenda was ominous? Writers return rewards. At 65+ I never heard many names! Who in the country is bothered?. Everyday one old man, whose value to the society was or is nil, except that they write (many others do, but they have no strings to pull) and Media tom toms that so and so has opposed Modi. For these perverted intelligentsia,

"“A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic.” 

Is this not indication MGB is losing heavily?

Then goes the VK Singh controversy. As of now, during may, 2014 too, whatever any BJP leader said was read beyond lines and a lot of noise was made. They lost the game. Now, they know they are losing it heavily. So all this game of perception.

“All I know is just what I read in the papers, and that's an alibi for my ignorance.” said Will Rogers.

That is the perception Press and Media were carrying in good olden days too. Now, the fourth pillar is rotten. It may collapse any time. Doordarshan was proud to announce that it reached a viewership of 4.5 crores from 43 lakhs earlier. This should send shivers in the spines of Private news Channels.


Diversity in political approach of the three MGB partners is seemingly overt. Today, Congress came in support of Hardik Patel. This is because it has interest in Gujarat. Other parties do not have. Lalu defends UP government while Congress takes on it. Nitish has national ambitions that Congress does not like. Congress does not share views of Lalu and keeps distance. Contrarily, NDA partners have no stakes outside of Bihar. BJP stand will be stable throughout the nation. And BJP is making educated youth voters of Bihar understand these contradictions in MGB views.


I said in my second part that as Bihar elections proceed Shivasena and BJP spat would increase with a view on migrant voters in mind. If SS opposes BJP and BJP opposes SS, votes of migrant families are certain to remain with BJP. The historic reasons for this are many. Nitish lost heavily on this count and SS played its role perfectly.

On the whole, from what Media says and from what Media hides, the nervousness in the three parties of MGB and the total lack of direction to the cadres with regard to the booth management, it is a one sided war with NDA already winning the game,. As Jaitely rightly has said elections are fought in booths and not in Media chat rooms. That way Modi-Shah are masters of the game and there is no looking back in Bihar or after Bihar polls, in other states. Congress Mukth Bharat and truest secular state is on the way.


Swasthi prajabhya paripalayantham,Nyayena margena maheem maheesa,Gobrahmanebhyo shubhamasthu nithyam,Loka samastha Sukhino bhavantu.