IT IS MODI ALL THE WAY- PART 29 -THE SIX SPOILERS
IN GHAT BANDHAN GAME
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
It is as good to know our own strengths as to know the weaknesses in the enemy camp. Though it is not ultimate war in Indian politically turbulent electoral battles, Bihar holds a special place in the political future of India, as many more states go to polls hereafter and the BJP led NDA has a lot at stake to silence detractors that are out to discredit a democratically elected Government by constant hoary noises both inside and outside Parliament. An attempt was made to cobble together a loosely knit coalition out of totally torn out pieces of a large canvas of pseudo secular forces. These pieces are many fold. The totally ruined pieces in the canvas is Indian National congress, wrinkled by old age and trampled upon by diabolic forces during a whole and quarter of a century of its existence. The other pieces want to knit themselves as borders to this piece and the resultant product is at the best, a door mat at the door of dynasty that is struggling for existence in a great country like India and is hiring Private Jets in search of a leased accommodation beyond our borders. The first attempt made in Bihar failed ab initio with the Pradhan Poojari disowning the alliance and the son of dynasty running away to Aspen. There remained two partners, who did not see eye to eye, who suspected fidelity of the other, each one of whom was wary to even name the other and one canvassed in the east and the other in west. One is interested in his ego and the other in his family.
There are many contradictions, there are many dichotomies in ideologies and the two leaders are like North Pole and South Pole and these two leaders of divergent parties want voters to believe in them and vote for them. Besides these two leaders, there are lot many contradictions that are evident as the campaign progressed. Let us see the spoilers of the party for the party called "Maha Ghat Bandhan".
In my second part of the series I mentioned that it would be difficult at that stage whether Arvind Kejriwal would be an asset or a liability to the alliance. It is now apparent that he is the biggest liability to Nitish, in view of the contradictions this man suffers from. Originally, he was roped in with the hope that Nitish could cash in his support base in Delhi among Bihar migrants. He also hoped that he could use this goodwill in other states like Punjab, Maharashtra etc., Much water passed under the Yamuna bridge since then. With his regular spat with the Centre and Modi in particular and nothing moving under his leadership in Delhi, he gave the issue of "one party at the Centre and State" to BJP on a platter. With other CMs including the Congress CMs not entering into direct confrontation with Modi, except at political level Kejriwal has become an isolated case where he is pouring water on his own food. Voters too think. It is foolish of politicos to think that voters remain glued to their 1947 mindset and they can change colors like chameleons every poll. This made Nitish think twice. He did not only not go after migrants in Delhi, but he also dropped plans to woo them in other states.
Secondly, Kejriwal played it too clever by halves. He says, "You vote to Nitish." He avoids Congress and Lalu. What kind of signal this sends? His appeal is half-hearted.
He advised Nitish to bank upon negative propaganda and Media management. He misread India. In Delhi people have access to Media, Social Media and word of mouth spreads like wild fire. He could create so many false rumors and could get away with them. Bihar is not a small state. Bihar is not Delhi. There are divergent political issues that drive Bihar. Information does not reach people as fast as in Delhi. Nitish left ground level and booth management and depended heavily on the negative propaganda by Media. Fake incidents, small incidents, incidents that never find mention in Media were blown out of proportion. An aura of negativity was sought to be created by which they wanted to create panic in sections of population. This gamble failed as BJP made inroads in the campaign very early and debunked all this negative campaign. Added to this the aggressive posture adopted by Modi in his campaign saw to it that Kejriwal falls into his own pit taking Nitish with him.
In a nut-shell, Kejriwal turned out to be the biggest spoiler to Nitish. If Nitish went his own way, he would have been in a better position today.
2.LALU PRASAD YADAV
There are two sides to a coin. Likewise, you wonder many times when an overtly happy married couple go to court seeking divorce. Their internal contradictions do not come to the fore until they start arguing in Courts of Law. We wonder. So too, the couple of Lalu and Nitish is in an unnatural alliance. Lalu ruled the state for fifteen years and virtually ruined it. I remember my brother telling me he went without food in Patna as migrants (employees transferred there) were afraid to go out after 7 PM. Reservations in trains were just on paper. No one was daring to ask the illegal occupant of a berth to vacate. Nitish ruled the state in a better way. And he had support of BJP, whose cadres were disciplined and whose approach was development. It is no surprise that Nitish has consulted a Tantrik about aligning with Lalu and he has declared "Lalu Murdabad". But Nitish kept it a guarded secret as he was under Kejri influence (another Maha Tantrik). He aligned with Lalu. From day one, Lalu was concentrating on getting his sons elected. He has no other interest but save his skin and settle his kin. He started playing hide and seek. He saw that Nitish ignored Mulayam. They are, after all, relations. His caste calculations revolved around Yadavs and religious ones on Muslims. He ignored Nitish vote banks. His aim is to be King or king maker. He lost both and he deprived Nitish both. On November 8th the real face of both these leaders will stand exposed in public when they spat in public and spit on Kejri's face together. It is fait accompli. I remember a few jokes on relationships.
A child asked his father, "How were people born?" So his father said, "Adam and Eve made babies, then their babies became adults and made babies, and so on." The child then went to his mother, asked her the same question and she told him, "We were monkeys then we evolved to become like we are now." The child ran back to his father and said, "You lied to me!" His father replied, "No, your mom was talking about her side of the family."
So, on November 8th, Nitish is going to tell about the temptation of Adam and Eve for the forbidden apple and Lalu is going to tell the Darwin theory of evolution of man from "grass eating" animals. "Kya pharak Hai?" he will ask.
Then read this.
Old farmer Johnson was dying. The family was standing around his bed. With a low voice he sad to his wife: "When I'm dead I want you to marry farmer Jones."
Wife: "No, I can't marry anyone after you."
Johnson: "But I want you to."
Wife: "But why?"
Johnson: "Jones once cheated me in a horse deal"
Got it? So, since Nitish called Lalu's regime Jungle Raj and wrote a big letter condemning him, he allied with Nitish to take revenge on him, just as the farmer wanted revenge on his friend who cheated him, by asking his own wife to marry him. Revenge game has its pit falls.
In a nut-shell Lalu is the second biggest spoiler for Nitish.
Owaisi knows pretty well that chances of his winning more than two to three seats are remote. But why did he gamble as a spoiler of pseudo secular forces? Owaisi family are highly educated. They think future, not just the present. Owaisi knows Congress is dead horse. Betting on it is waste of energy. Joining others, he will have to play second fiddle. He knows that he does not have as much firmer grip on his community as he has been having earlier. In 2014, he had a tough battle on hand in Hyderabad. He knows Modi is picking up fast despite noises by pseudos. Instead of siding the dead horses that are too many, he wants to prove he can act as deterrent to majoritarianism. He knows Modi's agenda is development. Most Muslims are getting educated, including girls. Their perception is changing. Religion is slowly but steadily taking a back seat in moderate Muslims. Their numbers are increasing by the day. By 2019, if Modi succeeds, there may be a major paradigm shift in Muslim voting pattern. Politics is like the giant wheel. There may be hawks in other religions who may target his community. He can always stand by them. If that does not happen, he may always say he has stood for development of the community and by not opposing Modi agenda he too has helped in their growth. He retains his share of vote and gains credit as a votary of development of his community with no confrontation. If the reverse happens, he can always say he has been their savior. He played major spoiler in Bihar. He may not win but he is certain to split Muslim vote of MGB. A few thousands in each constituency will help BJP gain at least thirty seats more. Again, Nitish miscalculated the spoiler role of Owaisi, hearing the Tantrik and Maha Tantrik, AK.
4. MULAYAM AND SHARAD YADAV:
Mulayam side stepped for two reasons. He may be knowing Nitish is losing heavily. That will effect his chances in UP. If he is in MGB and loses heavily, Mayawathi will gain ground in UP at his cost. And in between them, BJP will run away with power. So, he has distanced himself from Nitish, despite Lalu being there. He may have been wary of Lalu going to jail soon after Bihar polls. that will give handle to Mayawati to attack Mulayam. So he played a spoiler role by floating another front. Many pollsters brush him aside. But small drops leaking from Nitish pot will almost empty it by the time polls are over. His front has 2% vote and he can split both Yadav and Muslim vote. By playing Good Samaritan to the Dadri victim family he did exactly this. On the other side, at the instance of Lalu, Nitish totally ignored Sharad. This is used by BJP too drive home the point that Nitish ditches all from JP, Fernadez to Sharad. List is unending. This is going to make youth and educated voters think. A spoiler here.
It is a million dollar question why communists, who polled good percentage of votes in some constituencies earlier,did not join anti-Modi bandwagon. one reason is arrogance of Nitish and their grouse that he suppressed them, in alliance with BJP. Second reason may be Bengal, where Communists are dominant power and they do not want to be seen in company of one who has sided BJP till the other day and with a convict on bail. If they join Lalu, they can not fight Mamata on scams. It is simple logic, they decided to play spoiler for bigger gains and this split too will help BJP in at least ten seats.
Giving forty seats to Congress who has no leaders or cadres is the biggest mistake that Nitish will rue through out. Thirty five seats are handed to NDA on a platter in a golden plate by MGB. No vote will be transferred by Lalu in any of the forty constituencies. and JDU voters will not vote to them since they know Congress never helped the state during past ten years. We can say they are not only spoilers but nemesis of Nitish and Rahul, by returning from Ass Pain, added to his pain.
Before closing the blog read this funny anecdote.
Sam and John were out cutting wood when John cut his arm off. Sam remained calm, wrapped the arm in a plastic bag, and took the arm and John to a surgeon. "You are in luck," said the surgeon. "I am an expert in re-attaching limbs. Come back in four hours when I have completed the operation." So Sam returned in four hours and the surgeon said, "I did it faster than I expected. Jon is down at the pub." Sam rushed down to the pub and was amazed to see John playing darts. A few weeks later, Sam and John were cutting wood again when John accidentally cut off his leg. Sam put the leg in a plastic bag and took it and John back to the same surgeon. "Legs are harder," said the surgeon, "but I'll see what I can do - come back in six hours." Sam returned in six hours and the surgeon said, "I finished early - John's playing football." Sam went to the field and to his surprise found John kicking 50 meter torpedoes. A few weeks later, Sam and John were cutting wood again, when John accidentally cut off his own head. Sam put the head in a plastic bag and took it and the rest of John to the surgeon, confident that the skilful surgeon would do the job. "Gee, heads are really difficult to re-attach," the surgeon muttered, "but I'll see what I can do - come back in 12 hours." Sam returned in 12 hours. "How did it go, Doc?" he asked. "I'm sorry. John died," the surgeon replied. "He suffocated in the plastic bag, you idiot!!"
You may be wondering what this has to do with Bihar. Arvind Kejriwal thought the same medicine applies everywhere. But, Nitish carried the head in a plastic bag, called Lalu. On 8th November, Kejri is going to say that the head died of suffocation. Kejriwal is the best artist in the grand political opera being played by Opposition.. He blames all others except himself. His time too is nearing.
As I close this blog I hear the NDA did extremely well in the third phase and is going to repeat it in the next two two phases.