Tuesday, November 10, 2015



IT IS MODI ALL THE WAY? Lefists will leave the field. Congress will duck. Award Wapsi Gangs return more awards. Or they will take awards from Bihar. Liberals will blabber, "Who is this guy still holding forte and saying MODI ALL THE WAY again?" Most of you must be Rolling Over Floor Laughing and thinking to tweet ROFL. Kejriwal must be thinking of ways to fight corruption in a new methodology, with Nitish Kumar in the middle and Lalu and Congress, the most non-corrupt guys in India on each side. Or he may tweet soon "Corruption is less dangerous than communalism. People of India are such fools that they think personal laws and religion feed their posterity. People who prayed for their bread daily pray for a dose of secularism."

But I take a different view. I always maintained that NDA would be ahead in the race with 177-189 seats. That was based on macro analysis depending on various developments and mainly based on the assumption that JDU supporters would not approve of the maverick, corrupt and convict Lalu who made party his family feifdom.  But it seemed that they were more for making Nitish CM without bothering about consequences to their future
I thought too RJD suporters would ditch JDU as none from RJD would be CM. But with his jungle raj background it might not take much time to show Nitish his way out, they might have been assured in the "knock each door' campaign. (Surprisingly this was confirmed by one Bihari  migrant in Mumbai today that many women voters voted out of fear of adverse consequences, as the door knocking was effectively used to instill fear in women for the safety of men folk, but it is to be corroborated. Truth will not hide. The kind of campaign was a silent message that they can know which village voted to whom, a lie spread without inhibition. Votes are mixed and none knows area wise profile) Poorly educated Biharis did not come out of the cocoon, remained cater pillars.  . On the other side is Congress, the less said about which, the better. In the ultimate, Yadbhavena Tadbhavathi! Whatever one wishes he gets.

Usually, those who know I do not move a Centimetre away from my stated position, send DMs to me, what I really think, given ground reports suggesting a close race. My reply to some was that there was never or never would be a close race in such bi-polar fights, with other players chipping in and cutting into the traditional vote banks. One such DM and my reply, I am reproducing verbatim. In fact I totally differed a day before polls when Political Baba still maintained that it was very close. Many opinion polls and and exit polls predicted the same. But BJP top leadership concurred with my view. Dr. Ravishankar Prasad told Prannoy Roy, in clear language, that he respected exit polls but there was no close race. It was either way and as NDA man, he wished that it would be BJP way. I too knew this on the final phase of polling and said so to a few in confidence. But as Modi supporter, I could not openly take a different position. I am not Shatrughan Sinha nor RK Singh to be an insider and ousider simulataneously nor Yogi Adityanath to shoot my mouth on  unwarranted issues. Just as posterity can not survive on ultra pseudo secularism based on  appeasement of minorities and blatant use of minoritism to secure votes, it can not also survive on ultra Hinduism. Hope both sides realise this hard reality.

Now, my position as explained clearly in the DM. A friend asked me what was my take on the results then that the exit polls gave a close finish. My reply was "A 1% swing that side would  give MGB a sweep and the 177-189 I predicted might well go MGB way. But as NDA supporter, I would not say that." In another DM I said, I only analalyzed but would not bet on NDA victory. To another friend, I told it was never close fight and it would be sweep either way. The final result came like this.

Party                                 2014.                          2015.      Difference

MGB                                   45.60                            42.70.            _3.90
NDA                                    38.60                            34.90.           _4.70

Just imagine a hypothetical situation where the reduction in vote percentage was 3.90 to NDA and vice versa. My prediction of 177_189 seats for NDA would have held good. The casting of votes on caste lines did not work nor development of Nistish or Modi. It was a status quo with transfer of votes happening. JDU voters voted RJD or Congress thinking that Nitish, however, would be CM. RJD voters did the same as they believed Lalu would soon turn tables and RJD Chief's family would rule. Congress had no stake here nor would it have anywhere in India. Though one wishes a democratically elected government will succeed, such opportunistic alliances failed earler and are going to fail.

War of One-Upmanship

Even before results were out Lalu threw a tantrum and said he would tour India as anti-Modi force. This has two way implications. One, Nitish will be confined to Bihar and he should leave national ambitions to Lalu. After Modi, Nitish, Patnaik or Chauhan would be the most acceptable leaders in India. As in the case of 2014 when Congress was taboo, few would bet on Lalu party outside Bihar. So, one way Lalu is telling Nitish  to leave CM post and pit himself as alternate to Modi. Then, Congress started harboring national ambitions. Already they are on board saying let us think of leadership before 2019 polls. There are ominous, clear signs of personal ambitions as in 1977. For them even Nitish will not be acceptable. And there are few takers among political parties for Rahul, as PM.

Mortal victory versus Moral victory

After Modi became the most powerful force in BJP, the party stopped aligning with parties whose leaders were facing charges until they were cleared. In 2014, a lot of pressure was exerted on Modi to go with Jaganmohan Reddy in AP. But, he did not. If Modi went with Jagan in AP and KCR in TG, he would have had at least 35 MPs in NDA. And AP would have gone Jagan way. Traditionally Reddys and Brahmins supported BJP. Jagan had support of one powerful section of Dalits in AP and Christians too. But aligning with him would have torn the moral fabric of Modi. In Tamilnadu, Jaya would have given him one of the most powerful states in South. But, back then, Jaya was still facing court charges. Even aligning with DMK would have revived DMK and would have given Jaya a run for her money. But Modi preferred small allies at the cost of a state. If Modi aligned with Jaya her party would have been part of Central Government and in RS it would have been easier to maneuver the party. Here too moral fabric gave place to mortal victory. In Maharashtra, the ultra regional Siva Sena was kept at bay. Even now, it is a game of hide and seek there.

“Never accept peace with 
An enemy who is not just 
For, he will break his word 
And stab you in the back.”

Compare this with the stand of Nitish. When Lalu hijacked socialism he joined hands with BJP. It did not look communal then.  When BJP grew stronger (It got 24.4% vote share,the highest in present poll) he joined Lalu and Congress.They did not look corrupt now.

So, Nitish had a mortal victory. And Modi had, has and will have moral victory in any battle. Let us take the example of Mahabharata. Hence, IT IS MODI ALL THE WAY SERIES again.

After the natural heir to the throne Dharmaraja, the name of whom is an epitome of Dharma, was made the Supreme king of Bharata Khanda, he hosts  the whole Indian federal kings in a Maya Sabha. It is a kind of the various events hosted in honor of Modi right from Madison Square that continued unabated with the visit of Obama and a Suit that adversaries envied. When small animals fear the rule of Lion King, Jackals make a counter move for survival. Hence, Duryodhana burning with envy that Dharmaraja was glowing in fame and with false notion that he was intentionally insulted approaches Shakuni. He plans to invite Dharmaraja for a DICE game. Shakuni, like the Maha Tantrik, has magical dice by which he defeats Dharmaraja, who loses all and goes for living in forests for twelve years and in hiding for one year. He returns to decimate the whole clan of Dhritarashtra there after.

When young, I used to have a doubt why Lord Krishna did not kill all at that point itself. But later, I understood that sin should get accumulated before final blow fell so that decimation would be complete. Likewise, the brothers of Dharmaraja, could have killed all in a fit of rage when the modesty of Draupadi was sought to be defiled. But, Dharmaraja advised them not to hurry, as he had to play dice with traitors as part of Raja Dharma, as he could not escape from it. Loss was temporary, he would assure them.

Dharma drives some egos, ego drives some adharmics. Modi's ego is dharma driven. It will have temporary set backs. But, adharma drives ego of the likes Nitish. You can find  this in his ditching the Raja Dharma just to rule a small state. Decimation is inevitable. It is only a matter of time.

Contradictions in stand of opposition versus stable Dharmic stand of Modi:

Modi ruled Gujarat for three terms with no political upheavals. Development in Gujarat was high when compared to Bihar. Corruption was controlled whereas Nitish failed. Nitish showed knee jerk reaction whenever under threat. Modi remained cool in the most adverse situations. He did not approach the likes of Lalu for support.

Stand on corruption was consistent with Modi. Nitish vascillated when under threat. The less said about corruption and Congress. It is ready to share power with Lalu in Bihar on whom corruption charges were proved and he was jailed but it is bringing pressure on KM Mani, on whom the charges are still pending to be investigated and proven. The difference is their alliance with Lalu proved beneficial and with Mani proved to be its Achilles' heal, with Left surging and BJP gaining 18% vote share, never thought of in Kerala. BJP never played this kind of crooked politics. Under Modi it is a more refined party.

Crows and Owls- The Panchatantra

                            Trust not even a close friend 
This is the story of how the crows burnt the home of a trusting pack of owls.
Of Crows And Owls
Once upon a time all the crows in a town called Mahilaropya made a huge banyan tree their home. The tree had hundreds of branches. Their king, known as Meghavarna, set up strong fortifications to ensure security for his brood. Similarly, the owls of the town made a nearby cave their colony. They also had a king, called Arimardana, who ruled with the help of a strong and cunning army.
The owl king kept a close eye on the banyan tree and on account of previous enmity killed every night any crow he sighted outside the tree. Slowly, the owl king managed to kill all crows that could be seen outside the tree. That is why wise men had always said that whoever neglects disease or the enemy perishes in their hands.
Of Crows And Owls
Alarmed at the loss of his flock, Meghavarna assembled his ministers and asked them to prepare a plan to fight the owls. He placed before them six strategies and asked them to name the best of the six. The first minister suggested compromise as a tactic because one had first to survive to gather strength and later destroy the enemy. The elders have said,
“Bend to the enemy when he is strong
Attack him when he is vulnerable.
Don’t wage a war if it doesn’t bring
Power, or wealth or friendship.”
The second minister ruled out compromise and offered trickery as a formula. He cited the example of how Bheema in the Mahabharata had killed Keechaka in the disguise of a woman. He also quoted elders saying,
The minister referred to the learned as saying that it is easy to defeat an enemy who is a tyrant, a miser, an idler, a liar, a coward and a fool. Words of peace will only inflame an enemy blinded by anger.
The third minister said, “O lord, our enemy is not only strong but also wicked. Neither compromise nor trickery will work with him. Exile is the best way. We shall wait and strike when the enemy becomes weak.”
The fourth minister opposed all these tactics and suggested the king of crows should stay in his own fort, mobilize support from friends and then attack the enemy. He quoted the learned as saying,
Therefore, the minister said, “An ally is what wind is to fire. The king must stay where he is and gather allies for support.”
The fifth minister offered a strategy similar to that of the fourth and said, “Stay in your fort and seek the help of an ally stronger than the enemy. It also pays to form an axis of less strong allies.”
After listening to all the ministers, Meghavarna turned to the wisest and senior most among his counsels, Sthirajeevi, and asked him for his advice. The wise man told Meghavarna,
“Oh, king of crows, this is the time to use duplicity to finish the enemy. You can thus keep your throne.”
“But learned sir, we have no idea of where Arimardana lives and of what his failings are.”
“That is not difficult. Send your spies and gather information on the key men advising the king of owls. The next step is to divide them by setting one against the other.”
The story is incomplete. The blog too is incomplete. I wish all friends a very happy Diwali. India entered the highway of growth and the highway is smooth. Speed breakers are needed to see the majority of rulers does not go to their heads. 
The likes of Shatrughan are like those in Pandava camp sympathising with Duryodhana. The likes of those with foot in the mouth need be ignored.

                         MAY GODDESS LAKSHMI BLESS ALL.
Jaya Padma-pala-akshi Jay Tvam Sri Pati Priyeye Jaya Matr Maha Lakshmi Sansaaraarn-avtaarini
Glory be to Ma Lashmi, who has eyes like lotus flower petals. Glory be to the one who is dear to the husband of Sri (Sri Herself). Glory be to Mother Lakshmi, The Great Lakshmi, who delivers us from the ocean of this world