Sunday, December 18, 2016


Midway through Modi regime, it is too early to predict 2019. There are many imponderables even now. And as time passes many things change. After all, change is law of life. These changes may help chances of NDA or they may mar their chances. As of today, Modi remains unchallenged. All other leaders look like minions in front of a giant. But just as Modi emerged from nowhere, a leader of better caliber, a statesman with better vision, an orator who can bind audience in a magic spell may emerge. Leaders are not born. They are made. Circumstances make them leaders. Modi was made like that only. And Modi will welcome a challenger and accepts that challenge. So,.for the sake of academic interest let us assume there is a challenger. For a challenger to sprout Modi should commit great blunders that too ,innumerable. Anyone who knows Modi knows he is very careful in his dealings. He takes meticulous care before he takes a decision. Let us discuss this trait further. So, the question of a challenger rising from the "grave mistakes" of Modi does not arise. So the challenger must be mightier than Modi, who goes about A positive approach that he would do better than Modi. Negativism will not work as we have seen with other opposition parties. Thus, a challenge to Modi in 2019 is a far cry but cant be totally ruled out.

There are various scenarios that might unfold between now and the general elections in 2019.

1. Modi's leadership:  Modi is a leader of his own merit. He is an astute politician and a great statesman.  He is an orator and an administrator. His yeomen service as RSS pracharak helped him understand about people and their life styles and idiosyncrasies. One thing he must have understood better than any issue is that the more one is attacked without proof or real substance, he grows politically..That helped him in Gujarat four times and in May, 2014. Opposition could not gauge the mood of the public that they will  not accept an honest man to be called dishonest. So, in 2019 it will again be the same strength that could see him through if the opposition continues the same type of personal attacks. This is a positive.

2. After Modi took over as PM he initiated many schemes. Starting from Swach Bharaath to Demonetization the schemes are aplenty. How many of these are really working on ground, how many are in the making, how many did not take off and how many are total failure is a million dollar question.  But State Governments, even ruled by opposition parties are giving maximum publicity to most of the schemes which shows that these schemes have universal acceptance and each party ruling a state is seeing an opportunity in the success of the schemes as a trump card for victory in next polls. Further, Federalism has strengthened during these two and half years. BUT THE BIG QUESTION STILL REMAINS WHETHER THESE SCHEMES REALLY SUCCEED AND MORE SO, REACH THE GROUND LEVEL. If the schemes fail to reach the ground it will be trouble to Modi and BJP at individual level but still NDA may survive but it will weaken Modi as he will be a pawn in the hands of ambitious BJP and regional leaders. This is certainly great negative,

3. Pathetic position of Congress and listless Regional parties:Congress party was not reduced to ashes in the May, 2014 elections. Despite losing to BJP heavily and winning only 44 seats, the party retained its vote share in many states at a respectable level. The party, instead of making efforts to retain the share and projecting itself as a national level alternative to BJP, started showing signs of depression and decimation. A good leadership in the party would have rejuvenated the cadre who were disillusioned, confused and distressed at the loss of power so pathetically.  Instead of trying to retain its old glory as a national party Congress played second or third fiddle to regional parties. A good political strategist would have suggested that the party take BJP head on even if it were to lose. This would have given the cadre the confidence needed. State after state the party would have built strong cadre and vote banks. In ten years time it would have stood a chance of giving BJP a run for its money and could have ushered in a two or three party democracy.

The second blunder that Congress did was to play itself into the hands of minions like Rohit, Teesta, Kejri, Hardik Kanhiya, Naina Sehwal etc., who they thought could collectively take on Modi. These are fringe players with each having his/her own sinister agenda. By singing the tune of Left Liberals who are  losers world over, Congress lost its USP, which is a solid political and economic agenda for more than 100  years.  The continued attack on Modi instead of presenting a positive agenda for the nation building increased voter fatigue with Congress.And the reply of Modi with a good scheme after good scheme and his ability to lead a disciplined cadre to educate people about the schemes hit the final nail in the coffin of Congress. This explains the loss of Congress poll after poll including Panchayath polls where they were stronger.. And to add salt to the wounds, Congress was left with no leader in any state . Rahul Gandhi is not a leader by his own acumen but because Media says so. Seventy per cent of Congress cadre have no confidence in him.

The loss of Congress should be the gain of Regional Parties. It was not to be so. There is no tall regional leader worth the name who has a national appeal. The weakness of the regional leaders was totally exposed during their opposition to Demonetization. Each leader entertained an ambition to lead the opposition and project himself/herself as alternate to Modi. As a collective force they failed and they saw that Modi came out blot less. Even today they are confused as to what they should oppose. Communists losing ground in their strongholds is enough indication of the plight of smaller parties. And many of the strong regional leaders like NCBN, Naveen. Nitish, KCR, Jaya (Now Selvam) stood solidly behind Modi. On many issues Congress CMs ignored High Command to save their own turf locally. These two aspects are positives for Modi.

Let us analyze more positives and negatives that may play a part in the 2019 big battle of ballot. The poll is like a Rubik Cube as of now. And for Modi it is not an easy ride and for opposition it is the biggest dilemma!