YOUR METHODS WERE UNORTHODOX AND UNCONVENTIONAL MR.KEJRIWAL

YOUR METHODS ARE UNORTHODOX AND UNCONVENTIONAL MR.KEJRIWAL

Dear Mr. Kejriwal,

I will do a disservice to myself and to all right thinking citizens of this patriotic nation if I congratulate you on your assuming the mantle of Delhi. In fact, the kudos go to Congress for playing their dice cunningly. You do not deserve congratulations as you gambled your way to power by playing the dice game with them. As you are perceived honest (a thin line divides honesty from dishonesty, in your case it is a mere perception), I am giving the benefit of doubt to you and comparing you to the 'blot less' Dharmaraja, who too told a 'sweet lie' to win war. But as you played this game of dice for power, you stand in the opposite camp too.  And, in the process what did you bet at stakes? Is it not the trust and confidence of few lakh voters that voted to your candidates? Draupadi, one of the most pious women, taken aback on hearing that her husband lost her in gambling, asks, "Did he lose first and lose me then or did he lose me first and then lost himself?" Delhi voters are as pious too. Now, they are asking, "Did AK lose himself to Congress before bartering our trust to the "most corrupt party" (your own words) or did he barter our interests first without our knowledge and then lost himself?  To add salt to the wounds the TV channel that worked over time projecting your party is now asking the question, "Did the split begin?" within 12 hours of your announcing the "marriage of convenience" or "live in and out relation" , one inside and the other outside. The answer is as imponderable as your own personality traits.

I adhere to the dictum that in politics personal life of a leader, even a 'bete noir' should not be commented upon as that speaks poorly about the commentator. But, when personality traits of a leader reflect in his qualities of leadership that affect the state, as is your case, it is but apt to discuss your life pattern as known to me. You were born into a rich family with all comforts and well educated in reputed institutions. From then on, you placed your two feet on two boats that reflected a sense of indecision and vacillation in deciding which way to go. You were in and out of work. The same trait was evident in your 'fight against corruption' under the banner of IAC. While being a loyal follower of Anna Hazare you set your eyes high on fighting the system from within by leading it. Mahatma never had this ambition in his life. Nor did Mother Theresa, whose life had been inspiration to you. There is nothing wrong in trying to cleanse a system, of which you too have been part all these years but now suddenly realised that only you could cleanse it. But as Mahatma Gandhi said always, " Means should justify ends". But you went the opposite direction. For you, ends justified means.

To discuss this, I shall quote a minor event in your life that speaks for itself about the way you think and act. After all, masks are masks and one day the real faces come out. You resigned your post in IRS, a high paying job, in 2006. In fact it goes to your credit that you donated your money won under Ramon Magsayasay Award to an NGO. (I do not have details of the NGO or its organizers).  There was a condition attached to your service that you should work for minimum three years on rejoining after two years' study leave . To circumvent this clause you worked for 18 months and went on unpaid leave for 18 months and claimed this period on unpaid leave as "on duty". As a well educated, socially responsible citizen in high government job you must have known that "unpaid" leave did not count as service. But you feigned ignorance and fought the 'system'. Why? Was it to find a 'loophole' somewhere? What happened was part of history. Here, your ends of avoiding paying back 18 months' salary to the government justified the means you adopted, feigning ignorance of CCS rules. The larger question here is, " If you wanted to circumvent a CCS rule for your benefit, what moral right do you have to question the system and call all others as corrupt?" Corruption too is a state of mind. A person need not be physically corrupt to be called "dishonest". 

Your very intention of not paying the dues of government knowing fully well that you needed to pay amounted to dishonesty. I will narrate a small moral story. Two friends wanted to spend an evening. One suggested they go to a "dancing girl" programme and the other went to a temple. The one that saw the dance went to Heaven and the one that went to temple went to hell. The latter asked the King of hell the reason. He told, "You went to temple but rued about what joy you missed. He went to dance but mused over what righteous pleasure you were having in the temple." You were in government service for 11 years out of which you were on leave for  3.5 years. Do you call that honesty? If all in government service in Delhi emulate you, will you be able to run government? We make the system or mar the system. What did you do? Please just ponder over.

Another major trait evident in your personal or public life is that you leave a job half finished and jump on to the other. I go back to the days when you were conducting press conferences to expose the corrupt. One day you claimed you got 'clinching' evidence on the trust run by the wife of  Salman Khurshid. You went the whole hog of challenging him on his own turf. But suddenly you changed tack as if there was pressure on you from unknown quarters. You shifted gears and targeted Nitin Gadkari with flimsy charges. I still remember the day. I commented that this was being done to malign a particular party, as they were right wing, and whatever corruption charges were being hurled on Congress leaders were only a red herring. And you stopped pursuing the case of even Gadkari too after he was not given extension. As per Khurshid he was promoted and you seemed happy about it and kept quiet. From then on you shifted gears again and started projecting yourself as a "protector" of the rotten system. And you forgot to target "corrupt" leaders in the process. Your leap from IAC to AAP is another indicator of this trait. 

Then comes your real trait. You tend to criticize for the sake of criticism. Fact of life is that after some time people tend to ignore you. Criticism is the very essence of public life. But there are variations. Criticism can be constructive, destructive and/or self-destructive. From day one I saw you in public life, you adopted a destructive and self-destructive method of criticism. It is unorthodox, though it may give immediate results as has happened in your case. In the long run, though, it will destroy the system as a whole and consume you too. You started with a "Jan Lokpal" demand that was reasonable. Then you shifted gears. You gave an impression that all in the system were corrupt except you and your cronies. Yet, the fact that you are untested in public life leaves a question mark on your claims. In all your wisdom, you should have known that no system is foolproof. There was a Ravan where there was  a Lord Ram and a Duryodhan for a Dharmaraja. Angels and demons are said to be cousins and co-exist. It is not like that there is only one angel for all the demons to be fought with.

Another trait is you tend to make promises beyond your capacity. You told Delhi voters that you would slash power bills by 50% and supply 700 litres of water free of charge. You never calculated the financial implications of such promises. You can sign an order and say you have fulfilled the promise. But what will be the long term implication? Will it not lead to more unorthodox and bizarre practices? Will you tax the public to make up the deficit? You promised Jan Lokpal knowing fully well there would be no Lokpal at state level. Lokayuktha is already in place and you could have promised improvements in the existing laws to make it foolproof. No. But you wanted the whole credit. Then, on statehood yours was a hollow promise. Now, you say that you will sit on dharna at Raisina Hill. Most laughable, to say the least.

Now that you will be Chief Minister of Delhi for at least a few months, people or at least the 30% voters who voted you want answers for the nagging questions given your track record in your professional and public life. 

1) Now that you are in an "unnatural relationship" with your avowed bete noir, the most corrupt  Congress party, will you opt for a divorce by yourself or wait for them to walk out on you? Or will 

 you continue the unnatural relationship much to the discomfiture of your voters? 

2).Out of a total service of about 14 years, you were on leave for about four and half years. Leaving aside private service, you availed leave of absence of about 31/2 years of public service shirking your responsibilities almost 25% of  time. Can an Aam Aadmi that has to work daily for meeting both ends meet, have this luxury at  tax payers' money? And as CM will you assure him of such a luxury?

3) The moot question is, will you, who are accustomed to go on long leaves in pursuit of other avocations, be not tempted to repeat the feat as CM too and go on long leaves? Your assurances

have no value. We already knew you assured us that you would prefer opposition benches than unnatural allies and today you did the opposite. For this, you adopted another unorthodox method, mostly used by Hitler and Mussolini, of referendum. There is no audit of the results of referendum. It was an in-house job.

4) Will you follow rules by the book and abide even if they affect you personally or will you feign ignorance of rules, as you did in the past, to abdicate responsibility?

5) Will you still be tempted to jump from one task to another, in the process leaving all jobs unfinished, 

 as has been your trait through life?

6) Will you, at least now, stop picking holes in all others or will you fit into the system that you were 

highly critical all these years?

7) Finally, will you excuse any citizen that revolts against the system in the name of civil disobedience, 

if he finds your methods unpalatable to him? That was what you did by reconnecting power supply 

climbing an electric pole. Do you not feel it will lead to lawlessness?

Either you do not know how government functions or you wear the mask of ignorance. You wanted to interpolate the functions of civil society and government. Civil society is a watchdog that oversees the functioning of governments. It is difficult for them to govern in the normal course. And governments can not afford to be all that civil as civil society expects. Intricacies of governance involve compromises here and there. Only when these exceed limits and those governing involve in violations for selfish interests, civil society has a job on hand. To paint each by the same brush is not art. It is recipe for disaster. And you chose one of the best Chief Ministers Congress ever had in the country to be painted bad and you are attempting to do the same with some BJP Chief Ministers. In the process, you are only killing the system instead of curing it. Do you want to be a professional surgeon or a quack that operates with a butcher's knife? We wait to see.

On a cautionary note, let the initial aberrations of your behavioural patterns not lead to a bigger chaos in future. Being highly erudite you must be aware of the "theory of chaos" in mathematics, where the present is deterministic of the future but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future. Let not the Delhi citizens suffer from future chaos for minor aberrations in their initial preference of the party to be in power.

                                        @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@


Disclaimer: The information on the professional life of Mr.Kejriwal was taken mostly from Media reports and internet. The blogger does not vouch to the accuracy of the information so collected, as part of it might be hearsay too. The blogger wishes the AAP government success in the best interests of the state but disapproves the unorthodox methods adopted by the party and their leader in pursuit of their objects. The blogger believes that democracy works on some established principles and nations world over tried them successfully.

P.S.: By the time I am posting this, news channels are agog with news that fissures developed in AAP on ministry formation and one top member of the party is trying to strike a compromise. This proves my above point, " Intricacies of governance involve compromises here and there."

IS AAP AN ABERRATION THAT NEEDS CORRECTION?

By the time this blog is written, fate of Delhi Government formation still hangs in balance, the voters kept in a "Trishanku" , a Heaven created by Sage Viswamithra, between earth and Heaven. Delhi voters, who wanted the VVIP culture gone once and for all, were unwittingly caught in VPP culture (Value Payable By <repeated> Polls). 

A gullible family man (like the average Delhi voter), suffering from the menace of bed bugs for a decade saw an advertisement. "Get rid of the bugs; depend on us" and responded. He received a parcel and paid the cost by VPP. (Value Payable by Post). Happy that he could get rid of bugs, he opened and found one bottle of liquid and a knife, with instructions to use,"Catch hold of the bug, open its mouth and pour the liquid in the bug's mouth. If it does not die, kill it with the knife". 

What happened in Delhi was a repeat. The "bug poison" company is AAP. "Elect us and receive 'Value Post polls' (VPP)" was their slogan. Yes! the publicity was perfect. What more does a voter, suffering from all the ills of VVIP culture want? The sight of a hero who can climb an electric poll to reconnect the power supply disconnected by the corrupt system is great publicity. The promise of reduction of power bills by 50% and jailing all the corrupt officials/politicians within six months heated the blood of the youth Whatever be the other economic policies, the construction of a number of jails to imprison all would have provided enough employment to all them. So the voter responded. And he got a parcel of twenty eight MLAs. He got to know  the reality then. The pack of MLAs  cant do anything to kill the  'bug' of VVIP culture or corruption. They have no experience. They are haughty outwardly but pusillanimous inside. It is left to the gullible voter to kill the bug by going through the rigorous exercise again. (By vote or by "NOTA")

It was a matter of faith to the voter. He was under tremendous psychological stress due to reduction in real wages, rising costs, a rotten and corrupt system and lack of proper living conditions.  It is at such a time that the voters look towards a "Messiah". They thought they found one in Delhi too like they found various regional leaders that India produced. But he failed them by opting for another election. This was not unexpected. A person who ran over his own mentor for selfish ends could do so to the voters. Did Delhi voters learn a lesson? Let us wait. Aberrations are corrected by intelligent voters over a period of time. If emotions could win elections over a long period, AGP or TDP could have ruled their states forever. 

Ambition runs in Kejriwal's blood. He joined Anna's army riding on the high tide of anti congress mood in the country because of the various scandals involving crores of dollars. His ambition soured. He was propped up by self-interest groups who found decimation of congress inevitable and wanted the rightist party not to come to power. Fear of persecution might be one reason. So, once he found a platform to project himself, his mentors saw in him a possible tool that could divide the anti establishment vote and see that the 'rightist' party would not win absolutely.(Congress itself might not have been privy to this). A sustained media blitzkrieg was launched by these self-interest groups. Despite all this, he could win only 30% of votes and 28 seats. This shows that his message was taken with a pinch of salt by 70% of voters, who voted in large numbers. 

The biggest aberration is the thinking of Kejriwal, his followers and their invisible mentors. Soon after winning in good number of seats in Delhi their ambitions were further fuelled by their mentors. Result was the announcement of a contest over Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi. This is the anti thesis of Kejriwal's original agenda of fighting a corrupt system. Till now, if there are two politicians that were untouched by allegations of corruption directly, we can take these two names. (along with some others). For, though congress was rocked by many a scandal, Rahul was never involved in the decision making process nor was willing to do so. He never openly supported any corrupt act by any politician. Personally he maintained a dignity that few 'apparent heirs' in India maintained. He never showed pomp in public life.

If we take Narendra Modi, he was lauded by even foreign dignitaries as the most 'incorruptible' politician in the country. He ruled a state for more than a decade. His administrative acumen was lauded by even his political adversaries. He took his state to the highest level of growth in a decade. He gave people of his state better living conditions. His connect with the people of his state was unparalleled. Few politicians won three consecutive elections in the country, despite sustained campaign by rival political parties, fringe groups in the guise of NGOs and self-centred media. So, it was laughable that Kejriwal chose these two over others to fight "corruption". If he was really interested in fighting corruption he should have taken on Karunanidhi's family in Tamilnadu, Y.S.Jagan's family in AP, Mulayam's family in UP, Mayawati in UP, Lalu Prasad in Bihar, Pawar family in Maharashtra or Sibu Soren's family in Jarkhand etc., against whom serious corruption allegations were made at one point or other whether proved or still pending. The reason for his leaving the 'faces of corruption' is that the news won't create as much sensation as the news of contesting the 'untouched by corruption" Rahul or Modi. The agenda is clear that they want Modi not to come to power. Rahul's name is only a"red herring" to mislead the voter that he is taking on the "dynasty" also. 

"All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind." quote

                                @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

This is part 1 of my blog "Is AAP an aberration, a sensation or media creation?" Part 2 covers the "sensation" part. 

ADVANTAGE BJP BOTH WAYS

On one occasion Mr. P.V.Narasimharao told a story. “A layman told the King that he could make a

horse fly in six months. The King was taken aback but accepted the offer with a rider that he would knock off his head if he could not do it. One friend asked the challenger. “How could you do this? You could face the noose” The man replied, “ In six months, the King may die, I may die,the horse may die or who knows? The horse may fly.”

Six months is a long time in a man’s life. It is more so with elections. Parties that are posturing for re

election in Delhi may not be doing so on any of the above premises. But each player is confident “their horse will fly’ first and higher. The two players forget that ‘a dark horse’ may enter the fray and fly with the honours and spoil the party for them or that the other player adept in the game of bringing ‘dark horses’ as B teams may, as well, do that. So, where do parties stand in the game of numbers?

Let us start with the latest entrant AAP. AAP was a sensation for many reasons. But the main reason, per my opinion, is the “ hype” created by people connected with Media and who contested election on

AAP ticket.  Or, there is no meaning to say they have created history of sorts when they could not gather more than 30% of votes in comparison with 34% and 25% of votes polled by the most corrupt parties (in AAP’s own words), the BJP and the Congress. They mostly ate into the votes of BSP, a non serious player now. They reduced the vote share of BSP by 12%. Now, what may happen in case of a re election?

A joke here.  A wife was wailing on a Friday before her husband, “You ate baingan curry on Monday and applauded me, on Tuesday too you ate and said ‘baingan curry’ was delicious and kissed me too, on Wednesday you were all appreciation for the ‘baingan curry’ I made, on Thursday you ate the ‘baingan curry’ without uttering a single word and  I am shocked that you have thrown the baingan curry on my face today. What is this?” The lesson here is any thing in excess, even if it were good,  produces a negative effect. It is so in case of elections too. Too many of them can make voters fatigued.

If we bring a new toy to a child, he plays with it as if it were the only toy he has in his possession. But after 24/48 hours he switches back to his old toys and makes the new toy too as part of his collection. This is human nature. So, within six months AAP too becomes an ‘old toy’ to play with and part of the collection along with BJP, Congress and BSP. And any new attractive toy that may come into their possession may gain voters’ attention. So, what happens? Chances of AAP repeating the show of getting less than 1/3 rd of votes diminishes further as old players recoup their strength, correct their mistakes, present a unified show of strength and do all the tricks to see that the new sensation remains a paper tiger only.

Further, the re election will be held along with LS elections in 2014. Hype will be mostly on the national

election, where even if AAP contests, the main contest will be between UPA led by Congress and NDA

led by BJP. Issues will be different, far and wide and in the melee the media hype on the new sensation

will be reduced considerably. Attention of voters will be riveted on the national election and with a

strong leader like Modi and the heir apparent Rahul slugging it out, it becomes a fight between two

giants.  All the other minor parties will be on either side of the spectrum or in a loosely cobbled third or

fourth front. With the high moral ground adopted by AAP leader Kejriwal that all other parties except

AAP were corrupt, he would not be in a position to join sides with anyone. It will be a lone battle.

There are positives too. For good or bad, 30% Delhi voters decided that AAP could provide them the much needed soccour and came out enthusiastically to vote for them. If media is to be believed, even the aristocratic voters that never move out to vote, voted for them. So, basic human psychology suggests that these voters will not allow their vote to go waste and hence they may come out again in large numbers to vote to AAP. Added to this the undecided voters too may come out in large numbers and correct their mistake, if it were a mistake, of not being  part of the change. This may add to the vote share of AAP. But, there is a rider. The elections will be held during summer and most of the voters that voted for AAP may not venture to move out in the heat  or may be busy with examinations or may be relaxing with summer vacation. Will this not reduce their vote share? There is no core vote to AAP like Congress or  BJP. Core voters vote to their party, come what may.

If we come to Congress, it is a party that has withered many a storm. Victory or defeat does make no

difference to them.  As the longest surviving political party at the national level, they have

many tricks up their sleeve. They know how to get back from the same place what they have lost. Except in few states it remains a force to reckon with. A rough estimate suggests that they lost 15% vote share compared to 12% of BSP. This 27% vote used to shift between Congress and BSP alternatively in view of the  nature of ‘vote banks’ these two parties nourished over a period. AAP made the difference by grabbing this share of vote. The possibility of Congress targeting this section with sops and promises or Congress allying with BSP too can not be ruled out. If Congress can wean away even 5% of this vote it will be a force to reckon with and the clear loser will be AAP. Congress further losing ground of the vote share it has got now, is remote. If the party is further targeted by AAP with the same type of ammo they have used now, it will produce a negative effect due to sympathy. Now that Congress is not in power AAP will not be able to target them with the same intensity as they have done now. To that extent anti-incumbency factor will be nullified at the state level. It is our experience that memory of voters is short lived and they easily excuse their  oppressors.

BJP lost 3% vote share and got 34%. In 29 seats it stood second and in many seats it lost the election by a whisker. It is the analysis of BJP that due to the late entry of the CM candidate Dr. Harshvardhan, no less a clean aspirant for CM post than Kejriwal, they lost a few votes. The 34% vote is BJP core vote share and possibility of this vote going away in six months without any incumbency is remote. And many of those voters who voted to AAP in a fit of rage against established parties may be tempted to rethink in view of AAP not being able to form a government despite the chance offered to them. In normal course voters are likely to see the imposition of another election on them as arrogance of AAP leaders or their pusillanimity to govern. It is easy to spread a message that AAP leaders are just “men of empty noises”. This will help BJP more than Congress as Congress still suffers from incumbency at the Centre. And the high decibel campaign by BJP PM aspirant Modi nationwide will have a very positive impact on voter psyche that will help BJP to a large extent. The temptation of AAP leaders to target Modi personally may boomerang as it is happening in case of other parties.  A 3-5% addition in BJP vote share with a 3-5% addition to Congress share will swing the pendulum heavily in favour of BJP and possibly decimate AAP.

Even if BJP forms a minority government now and performs well and at a later date they are dislodged,

the pro-incumbency and sympathy of an elected government dislodged by Congress or AAP will help

them in the coming polls. Both ways it seems advantage BJP.

                               @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@