Wednesday, October 24, 2018


Conclusion is BJP has AP in its kitty with 20 LS seats in NDA kitt



MODI ON TRACK TO SWEEP 2019 - MY ANALYSIS ON PAST TRENDS AND FUTURE 

PATTERNSHOW AP VOTES PART 1


Andhra Pradesh makes a very interesting study in the run-up to the 2019 polls for more than one reasons The first and foremost fascinating fact about the state is the confounding conundrum that the CM, Chandrababu faces after his umpteenth volte face in ideology Left, Right and Centre. Caught between the devil and deep sea in the volatile political situation in the state today, confused which political course will help him retain his coveted chair thus saving him from the ignominy of facing innumerable cases, criminal not excluding, and joining his old friend Lalu in Tihar, his  diabolic rhetoric borders on the idiotic and exposes his inherent fear of the inevitable. Grapevine ha it that he requested the PMO  to  ignore the various complaints of corruption, nepotism, diversion of Central funds, the note for vote case, IT evasion post demonetization, to name  all it requires a book. But, the no-nonsense PM who cares not to punish his own party men if found on the wrong side; did not budge. Dattatreya is an example of PM's steadfast commitment to sidestep the dishonest and self-centred BJP leaders. His sidestepping Yashwanth Sinha, Shatrughan, Shourie, Ram Jethmalani among others, who are proving too ambitious and are turning stumbling blocks in his development agenda and who considered the PM as the Chai-Boy, not deserving PM post, too is no  secret. In  such scenario, NCBN expecting that he would be treated with kid-gloves, as he thinks he is superior to the PM. To prove this CM AP started marketing himself with few feather-brained, preposterous and humdinger/ludicrous comparison of his stature with that of Narendra Modi. His rodomontading time and again that he became CM in 1995 and Narendramodi in 2001 shows his pomposity, pretension  a cunning , covert confidence that people forget past sins. If not conceited in basic nature how could he even fancy that people forget how he became CM in 1995 and why Modi was anointed to the post in 2001.  Subsequent polls in 2002 to 2017 in Gujarat and 1999 to 2014 in AP show the steadfast ideology of Modi that made him invincible and the opportunism of Babu that made  him fall and rise blaming others for his idiosyncrasies. 
Let us examine and expose the hollowness of Babu's claims that he is greater and more experienced than Modi. Before we indulge ourselves in figures, one basic point can never be missed. While Babu depended on sops to various sections, appeasement of minorities one time and majority the other time, as suited his agenda, Modi depended on his capacity to deliver, stuck to his ideology, never blinked an eye-lid in the face of harsh personal attacks on him. In the midst of all negative campaign Modi not only developed the state, without  offering any sops, nor appeasing any section nor changing his colors every poll. And he not only never lost a poll, he never lost the vote share he got in 2002. Babu got defeated twice in 2004 and 2009, changed allies more times than he changes color of his dress, dumped allies at will, used NDA under Vajpayee Jee, blackmailed the Centre and got funds and today boasts he developed Hyderabad. In contrast, Modi developed Gujarat despite full-scale non-cooperation from Congress led Centre.  Modi's vote share always hovered around 47 to 51%, never less and BJP won four times there

Now, let us consider how AP voted since 1994 till 2014 and these figures are precursor to how they vote in 2019 and how it is "NEMESIS" Babu and son.

In 1994, when NTR contested in alliance with the Communists, TDP on its on won 44.14% vote and 216 seats and Communists 6.34% and 20 seats. BJP that contested 280 seats got 3.67% share on its own. 

In 1995, Babu ousted NTR in a coup of sorts and boasts he became CM very early. Yes! Circumstances were such that the state was going into the hands  of an unscrupulous lady. But, why only Chandrababu as CM? He could have offered the post to  a senior politician in TDP, for whom there was no dearth in the party. His ambition took over his good political sense. 

Did he retain the confidence of people in the next poll and sweep the state like the colossus NTR? See for yourselves. In 1999, in the first ever election NCBN faced, TDP allied with BJP to be part of NDA, which was a clever move by the Machiavellian Politician.  He knew from trends that no single party could form Government and BJP was having edge. For political taskmasters who use every opportunity to get what they want without a trace of scar on their career, this is a golden chance.  Despite all his cunning, TDP got just 39.87%  share of vote and together with BJP  43.54% far,  far less than almost 51% polled by NTR with allies.  This tells a lot on his acumen.  

In 2004,  the scene reversed. TDP + BJP  got 40.22% share and were trounced at the hustings. YSR swept the polls.  Despite lots of complaints on YSR, Babu could not cash in the incumbency in 2009 by his arrogance and take-it-for-granted attitude.  YSR used his political acumen  and used Chiraanjeevi to wean away votes of one caste group and youth from the anti-vote. Babu found himself marginalized in AP. 

In 2014, Babu found himself in a piquant situation with Congress waving white flag and youthful  Jagan 's YSRCP making unexpected waves in the state. At one stage, TDP was written off.  Then came the opportunity to ally with Modi. But Babu hesitated as voters did not forget his disgraceful act of dumping the great Vajpayee. But without the solid 3% vote of BJP and the increasing popularity  of Modi, he found himself in a catch 22 situation.  With Jagan sending feelers to BJP and Pawan making shrill noises of an alternate force and Modi tapping his potential,  Babu succumbed to the temptation  of the CHAIR bartering his self-respect at the hustings.  But he played  a drama that Modi or Shah could never forget. He made hard bargain till last minute and among the seats allotted to BJP, TDP contested at least one seat. His calculations that there would be coalition at the Centre and he could again play his tricks of trade failed him miserably. Not only Modi won majority for BJP but he proved a tough nut to crack unlike Vajpayee Jee who was soft.  When the going went tough and enough indications came out that investigations into usage of Central funds would begin soon, he suffocated in NDA. Polavaram project and the reported misuse of funds there added salt to his wounds. Jagan and Pawan making inroads into his meager vote share of 2014, sent shivers down his spine.  So, he withdrew from NDA and started diverting attention of public from his failures and alleged corrupt deeds, he unleashed a no-holds-barred filthy campaign on Modi making it a war between Gujarat and AP. Voters are not fools. For all the dramas he enacted, there was lukewarm response from public..  The great dramatic fast by CM Ramesh did not evoke any response even in Cuddapah and it, in fact, divided the local TDP  unit into  two. With his gambles  failing one by one, he started wooing other regional parties.  He drew a blank there So, he fell back upon Congress, against whose corrupt hegemony TDP was born. His turnaround in politics obfuscated even Arvind Kejriwal, whose U-Turns gained world-wide prominence.. That is where Babu stands or sinks as per history.. 

Now,  the scenario for 2019.  It is very, very, very bleak  for TDP, bleaker than the weakest Congress.  Let us examine the prospects of each party starting from  BJP  and ending with TDP. 

BJP  has been consistently polling 3% vote, but when it contested 280 seats it got 4% share. Now, the party is aggressively campaigning and is attracting top leaders of other parties. By the end of 2018 many TDP second rung leaders and those disgruntled with the autocratic functioning of Babu are likely to join the party.  The main disadvantage of the party is lack of a strong leader who can connect to masses. In all likelihood , BJP will tie up with Jagan and/or Pawan. Babu lost his weapon to attack BJP that the party is cozying up with Jagan facing charges, after he tied up with Congress whom he accused of corruption. After all, Jagan too is a branch of Congress tree, withered now.  If BJP goes for alliance with Jagan or Pawan, the likelihood of BJP being part of government in AP is certain. Even otherwise, the tally of BJP will increase  substantially.

Position of Congress worsened after 2014. Leaders left the party to join TDP, BJP and now Janasena. The party which had solid vote bank of 30% + in AP got 11.5% in 2014.  Anger on Congress subsided post division among general public. But Congress cadres left the party for greener pastures and the High Command almost forgot it had a unit in AP.  Even now, Congress is hoping against hope that TDP wwill ally with it as a quid pro quo for having allotted seats to the dead TTDP.  NCBN may be tempted but how voters viiew the alliance is million dollar question. After all, TDP was born and it grew on anti-Congress plank. Communists with 2-3% distanced from the party. No caste group is solidly behind the party. Muslims and Christians are not a major force here but even they are disenchanted with the changing colors of Rahul Gandhi. And Rahul Gandhi is the biggest negative factor anywhere in the country for Congress.  All in all, Congress will  finish fifth in  the line or it may draw a blank too.  


SWATCH BHARATH FROM TUCH POLITICOS - 1. NCBN

MODI ON TRACK TO SWEEP 2019 - MY ANALYSIS ON PAST TRENDS AND FUTURE PATTERNS

PART-ONE

#############

HOW AP VOTES PART 2

DECIMATION TDP




In Part 1, I dealt with the ground level support that the two national  parties enjoy in AP  and their prospects in 2019.  To remind readers, BJP is sure to make huge inroads into the vote share across the state and may spring a surprise sweep in Seema, North Andhra and Godavari Dists. Position of Congress is worse  than 2014 and only if it ties up with TDP it cant win double digit seats.  Tying up with Congress will be suicidal for TDP.

Another, deemed national front is that of Communists, who survive like termite but cant spread.  They get a traditional vote share of 3-4% and in alliance with one or other parties, except BJP win two or three seats. This time, they already announced support to Janasena, probably to wean him away from BJP. But, in politics nothing is certain and Pawan may ultimately sail with BJP in case BJP shows signs of growing in stature. (This seems certain). We can thus write off Communists  in AP.

YSRCP: As a fledgling party in 2014 polls, YSRCP did very well at the hustings in 2014, so much so that the party sent shivers down the spine of TDP and Congress leaders and gave a run for their money. The most surprising aspect of the performance of Jagan is that despite unassailable corruption allegations against him, he was more preferred to Chandrababu Naidu as better CM. Naidu should remember this whenever he gets a thought that he is No.1 CM, highly experienced and electing him is historic necessary. (If so, it is distorted history). Jagan did so well during his campaign, that he forced Babu to offer an olive branch to BJP, to stave off a possible historic humiliation in polls.

If e consider brass tacks, following was the break-up  of vote/seat share. The polls were conducted in United AP.

Telugu Desam Party (TDP)15,746,215117                 32.50
YSR Congress Party (YSRCP)15,494,076  70                 32.01
Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS)6,620,326  63                 13.01
BJP                                              2,00,677                                        9                  4.1
Indian National Congress            5,68,061                                      22                11.7

Jagan is leaving no stone un-turned to cover the gap between his party and his bete noir's party. Pawan's Janasena is a blessing in disguise to his party. During 2014 Pawan canvased for NDA, TDP being part.  This time around, in addition to heavy anti-incumbency, Babu faces a division of votes thru' Janassena. Of course, a loss of vote to YSRCP too is a possibility. But it will be negligible considering YSRCP got very less Janaena vote in 2014 and he faces not much incumbency.  All in all, advent of Pawan on the scene is sinister omen to TDP.

Janassena:  Janaena is a fledgling political party. In 2014, they did not partake in polls as a full pledged political party.. But by going back to PRP stint at the hustings it can be concluded that   it will eat into a major chunk of votes of TDP around 12%  It is likely other parties too suffer. Congress will suffer a loss of around 5% out of 11% it got in 2014. BJP and Commies may not suffer much as their vote base is too thin till now.

Janasena scores around 20% but its seats will be a major threat to any political party. BJP will improve vote share and may reach double figures first time ever. It may gain few seats. If commies tie up with Pawan, his seat share too will improve. Major gainer will be YSRCP, that is already on strong wicket in many districts. Jagan is playing his cards deftly by not resorting to foul language nor showing his paranoia about cases overtly. 

Babu is exposing his inward fear that his corrupt background will be his nemesis. This has a further negative effect on his chances.

The Resultant effect will be TDP will almost be decimated like the Congress in 2014. Janasena scores around 20% but its seats will be a major threat to any political party. BJP will improve vote share and may reach double figures first time ever. It may gain few seats. If commies tie up with Pawan, his seat share too will improve. Major gainer will be YSRCP, that is already in strong wicket in many districts. Jagan is playing his cards deftly by not resorting to foul language nor showing his paranoia about cases overtly. Babu is overly nervous and is exposing.his paranoia. His no-hold barred hate campaign is only helping his adversaries. 

It can be easily predicted that YSRCP will sweep polls with 30% vote.  Janasena will give a run for their money with 20-25% share and may close-in with YSRCP if commies add their spread-out vote. BJP will score 10% and start its onward march for LS where it will be the major force. Congress will go down further and draws nil seats but will be spoiler to TDP if they join them. TDP will start getting decimated. If one goes back TDP never won polls on its  on after NTR, despite Babu's boast. They were always in alliance with Left or Right. 

YSRCP AND JANAENA ,BOTH WILL  SUPPORT NDA FOR STRATEGIC REASONS. IT IS A WIN-WIN SITUATION FOR BJP. 

Projection of Swamy Paripoornananda as CM candidate and deft handling of polling booth may land BJP in power corridors , a very likely scenario. Once he loses power Babu will be in the same situation as Jagan is now. Both will share the box in Courts. Jail? Depends!

Conclusion is BJP has AP in its kitty with 20 LS seats in NDA kitty. 

My projection : NDA - 20
TDP - 4
OTHERS - 1




MODI ON TRACK TO SWEEP 2019 - MY ANALYSIS ON PAST TRENDS AND FUTURE PATTERNS

PART-ONE

#############

HOW AP VOTES PART 2

DECIMATION TDP




In Part 1, I dealt with the ground level support that the two national  parties enjoy in AP  and their prospects in 2019.  To remind readers, BJP is sure to make huge inroads into the vote share across the state and may spring a surprise sweep in Seema, North Andhra and Godavari Dists. Position of Congress is worse  than 2014 and only if it ties up with TDP it cant win double digit seats.  Tying up with Congress will be suicidal for TDP.

Another, deemed national front is that of Communists, who survive like termite but cant spread.  They get a traditional vote share of 3-4% and in alliance with one or other parties, except BJP win two or three seats. This time, they already announced support to Janasena, probably to wean him away from BJP. But, in politics nothing is certain and Pawan may ultimately sail with BJP in case BJP shows signs of growing in stature. (This seems certain). We can thus write off Communists  in AP.

YSRCP: As a fledgling party in 2014 polls, YSRCP did very well at the hustings in 2014, so much so that the party sent shivers down the spine of TDP and Congress leaders and gave a run for their money. The most surprising aspect of the performance of Jagan is that despite unassailable corruption allegations against him, he was more preferred to Chandrababu Naidu as better CM. Naidu should remember this whenever he gets a thought that he is No.1 CM, highly experienced and electing him is historic necessary. (If so, it is distorted history). Jagan did so well during his campaign, that he forced Babu to offer an olive branch to BJP, to stave off a possible historic humiliation in polls.

If e consider brass tacks, following was the break-up  of vote/seat share. The polls were conducted in United AP.

Telugu Desam Party (TDP)15,746,215117                 32.50
YSR Congress Party (YSRCP)15,494,076  70                 32.01
Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS)6,620,326  63                 13.01
BJP                                              2,00,677                                        9                  4.1
Indian National Congress            5,68,061                                      22                11.7

Jagan is leaving no stone un-turned to cover the gap between his party and his bete noir's party. Pawan's Janasena is a blessing in disguise to his party. During 2014 Pawan canvased for NDA, TDP being part.  This time around, in addition to heavy anti-incumbency, Babu faces a division of votes thru' Janassena. Of course, a loss of vote to YSRCP too is a possibility. But it will be negligible considering YSRCP got very less Janaena vote in 2014 and he faces not much incumbency.  All in all, advent of Pawan on the scene is sinister omen to TDP.

Janassena:  Janaena is a fledgling political party. In 2014, they did not partake in polls as a full pledged political party.. But by going back to PRP stint at the hustings it can be concluded that   it will eat into a major chunk of votes of TDP around 12%  It is likely other parties too suffer. Congress will suffer a loss of around 5% out of 11% it got in 2014. BJP and Commies may not suffer much as their vote base is too thin till now.

Janasena scores around 20% but its seats will be a major threat to any political party. BJP will improve vote share and may reach double figures first time ever. It may gain few seats. If commies tie up with Pawan, his seat share too will improve. Major gainer will be YSRCP, that is already on strong wicket in many districts. Jagan is playing his cards deftly by not resorting to foul language nor showing his paranoia about cases overtly. 

Babu is exposing his inward fear that his corrupt background will be his nemesis. This has a further negative effect on his chances.

The Resultant effect will be TDP will almost be decimated like the Congress in 2014. Janasena scores around 20% but its seats will be a major threat to any political party. BJP will improve vote share and may reach double figures first time ever. It may gain few seats. If commies tie up with Pawan, his seat share too will improve. Major gainer will be YSRCP, that is already in strong wicket in many districts. Jagan is playing his cards deftly by not resorting to foul language nor showing his paranoia about cases overtly. Babu is overly nervous and is exposing.his paranoia. His no-hold barred hate campaign is only helping his adversaries. 

It can be easily predicted that YSRCP will sweep polls with 30% vote.  Janasena will give a run for their money with 20-25% share and may close-in with YSRCP if commies add their spread-out vote. BJP will score 10% and start its onward march for LS where it will be the major force. Congress will go down further and draws nil seats but will be spoiler to TDP if they join them. TDP will start getting decimated. If one goes back TDP never won polls on its  on after NTR, despite Babu's boast. They were always in alliance with Left or Right. 

YSRCP AND JANAENA ,BOTH WILL  SUPPORT NDA FOR STRATEGIC REASONS. IT IS A WIN-WIN SITUATION FOR BJP. 

Projection of Swamy Paripoornananda as CM candidate and deft handling of polling booth may land BJP in power corridors , a very likely scenario. Once he loses power Babu will be in the same situation as Jagan is now. Both will share the box in Courts. Jail? Depends!

Conclusion is BJP has AP in its kitty with 20 LS seats in NDA kitty. 

My projection : NDA - 20
TDP - 4
OTHERS - 1

                              #########################

Thursday, October 11, 2018

MODI ON TRACK TO SWEEP 2019 - MY ANALYSIS ON PAST TRENDS AND FUTURE 

PATTERNSHOW AP VOTES PART 1


Andhra Pradesh makes a very interesting study in the run-up to the 2019 polls for more than one reasons The first and foremost fascinating fact about the state is the confounding conundrum that the CM, Chandrababu faces after his umpteenth volte face in ideology Left, Right and Centre. Caught between the devil and deep sea in the volatile political situation in the state today, confused which political course will help him retain his coveted chair thus saving him from the ignominy of facing innumerable cases, criminal not excluding, and joining his old friend Lalu in Tihar, his  diabolic rhetoric borders on the idiotic and exposes his inherent fear of the inevitable. Grapevine ha it that he requested the PMO  to  ignore the various complaints of corruption, nepotism, diversion of Central funds, the note for vote case, IT evasion post demonetization, to name  all it requires a book. But, the no-nonsense PM who cares not to punish his own party men if found on the wrong side; did not budge. Dattatreya is an example of PM's steadfast commitment to sidestep the dishonest and self-centred BJP leaders. His sidestepping Yashwanth Sinha, Shatrughan, Shourie, Ram Jethmalani among others, who are proving too ambitious and are turning stumbling blocks in his development agenda and who considered the PM as the Chai-Boy, not deserving PM post, too is no  secret. In  such scenario, NCBN expecting that he would be treated with kid-gloves, as he thinks he is superior to the PM. To prove this CM AP started marketing himself with few feather-brained, preposterous and humdinger/ludicrous comparison of his stature with that of Narendra Modi. His rodomontading time and again that he became CM in 1995 and Narendramodi in 2001 shows his pomposity, pretension  a cunning , covert confidence that people forget past sins. If not conceited in basic nature how could he even fancy that people forget how he became CM in 1995 and why Modi was anointed to the post in 2001.  Subsequent polls in 2002 to 2017 in Gujarat and 1999 to 2014 in AP show the steadfast ideology of Modi that made him invincible and the opportunism of Babu that made  him fall and rise blaming others for his idiosyncrasies. 
Let us examine and expose the hollowness of Babu's claims that he is greater and more experienced than Modi. Before we indulge ourselves in figures, one basic point can never be missed. While Babu depended on sops to various sections, appeasement of minorities one time and majority the other time, as suited his agenda, Modi depended on his capacity to deliver, stuck to his ideology, never blinked an eye-lid in the face of harsh personal attacks on him. In the midst of all negative campaign Modi not only developed the state, without  offering any sops, nor appeasing any section nor changing his colors every poll. And he not only never lost a poll, he never lost the vote share he got in 2002. Babu got defeated twice in 2004 and 2009, changed allies more times than he changes color of his dress, dumped allies at will, used NDA under Vajpayee Jee, blackmailed the Centre and got funds and today boasts he developed Hyderabad. In contrast, Modi developed Gujarat despite full-scale non-cooperation from Congress led Centre.  Modi's vote share always hovered around 47 to 51%, never less and BJP won four times there

Now, let us consider how AP voted since 1994 till 2014 and these figures are precursor to how they vote in 2019 and how it is "NEMESIS" Babu and son.

In 1994, when NTR contested in alliance with the Communists, TDP on its on won 44.14% vote and 216 seats and Communists 6.34% and 20 seats. BJP that contested 280 seats got 3.67% share on its own. 

In 1995, Babu ousted NTR in a coup of sorts and boasts he became CM very early. Yes! Circumstances were such that the state was going into the hands  of an unscrupulous lady. But, why only Chandrababu as CM? He could have offered the post to  a senior politician in TDP, for whom there was no dearth in the party. His ambition took over his good political sense. 

Did he retain the confidence of people in the next poll and sweep the state like the colossus NTR? See for yourselves. In 1999, in the first ever election NCBN faced, TDP allied with BJP to be part of NDA, which was a clever move by the Machiavellian Politician.  He knew from trends that no single party could form Government and BJP was having edge. For political taskmasters who use every opportunity to get what they want without a trace of scar on their career, this is a golden chance.  Despite all his cunning, TDP got just 39.87%  share of vote and together with BJP  43.54% far,  far less than almost 51% polled by NTR with allies.  This tells a lot on his acumen.  

In 2004,  the scene reversed. TDP + BJP  got 40.22% share and were trounced at the hustings. YSR swept the polls.  Despite lots of complaints on YSR, Babu could not cash in the incumbency in 2009 by his arrogance and take-it-for-granted attitude.  YSR used his political acumen  and used Chiraanjeevi to wean away votes of one caste group and youth from the anti-vote. Babu found himself marginalized in AP. 

In 2014, Babu found himself in a piquant situation with Congress waving white flag and youthful  Jagan 's YSRCP making unexpected waves in the state. At one stage, TDP was written off.  Then came the opportunity to ally with Modi. But Babu hesitated as voters did not forget his disgraceful act of dumping the great Vajpayee. But without the solid 3% vote of BJP and the increasing popularity  of Modi, he found himself in a catch 22 situation.  With Jagan sending feelers to BJP and Pawan making shrill noises of an alternate force and Modi tapping his potential,  Babu succumbed to the temptation  of the CHAIR bartering his self-respect at the hustings.  But he played  a drama that Modi or Shah could never forget. He made hard bargain till last minute and among the seats allotted to BJP, TDP contested at least one seat. His calculations that there would be coalition at the Centre and he could again play his tricks of trade failed him miserably. Not only Modi won majority for BJP but he proved a tough nut to crack unlike Vajpayee Jee who was soft.  When the going went tough and enough indications came out that investigations into usage of Central funds would begin soon, he suffocated in NDA. Polavaram project and the reported misuse of funds there added salt to his wounds. Jagan and Pawan making inroads into his meager vote share of 2014, sent shivers down his spine.  So, he withdrew from NDA and started diverting attention of public from his failures and alleged corrupt deeds, he unleashed a no-holds-barred filthy campaign on Modi making it a war between Gujarat and AP. Voters are not fools. For all the dramas he enacted, there was lukewarm response from public..  The great dramatic fast by CM Ramesh did not evoke any response even in Cuddapah and it, in fact, divided the local TDP  unit into  two. With his gambles  failing one by one, he started wooing other regional parties.  He drew a blank there So, he fell back upon Congress, against whose corrupt hegemony TDP was born. His turnaround in politics obfuscated even Arvind Kejriwal, whose U-Turns gained world-wide prominence.. That is where Babu stands or sinks as per history.. 

Now,  the scenario for 2019.  It is very, very, very bleak  for TDP, bleaker than the weakest Congress.  Let us examine the prospects of each party starting from  BJP  and ending with TDP. 

BJP  has been consistently polling 3% vote, but when it contested 280 seats it got 4% share. Now, the party is aggressively campaigning and is attracting top leaders of other parties. By the end of 2018 many TDP second rung leaders and those disgruntled with the autocratic functioning of Babu are likely to join the party.  The main disadvantage of the party is lack of a strong leader who can connect to masses. In all likelihood , BJP will tie up with Jagan and/or Pawan. Babu lost his weapon to attack BJP that the party is cozying up with Jagan facing charges, after he tied up with Congress whom he accused of corruption. After all, Jagan too is a branch of Congress tree, withered now.  If BJP goes for alliance with Jagan or Pawan, the likelihood of BJP being part of government in AP is certain. Even otherwise, the tally of BJP will increase  substantially.

Position of Congress worsened after 2014. Leaders left the party to join TDP, BJP and now Janasena. The party which had solid vote bank of 30% + in AP got 11.5% in 2014.  Anger on Congress subsided post division among general public. But Congress cadres left the party for greener pastures and the High Command almost forgot it had a unit in AP.  Even now, Congress is hoping against hope that TDP wwill ally with it as a quid pro quo for having allotted seats to the dead TTDP.  NCBN may be tempted but how voters viiew the alliance is million dollar question. After all, TDP was born and it grew on anti-Congress plank. Communists with 2-3% distanced from the party. No caste group is solidly behind the party. Muslims and Christians are not a major force here but even they are disenchanted with the changing colors of Rahul Gandhi. And Rahul Gandhi is the biggest negative factor anywhere in the country for Congress.  All in all, Congress will  finish fifth in  the line or it may draw a blank too.  


SWATCH BHARATH FROM TUCH POLITICOS - 1. NCBN



@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@



Monday, October 8, 2018

STORIES OF PANCHATANTRA IN SIMPLE TELUGU POEMS - TELUGU WITH ENGLISH TRANSLATION



PART 6 

WITH ENGLISH TRANSLATION




For more than two and a half millennia, the Panchatantra tales have regaled children and adults alike with a moral at the end of every story. Some believe that they are as old as the Rig Veda. There is also another story about these fables. According to it, these are stories Shiva told his consort Parvati. The present series is based on the Sanskrit original.
A king, worried that his three sons are without the wisdom to live in a world of wile and guile, asks a learned man calledVishnu Sharman to teach them the ways of the world.

Since his wards are dimwits, Vishnu Sharman decides to pass on wisdom to them in the form of stories. In these stories, he makes animals speak like human beings. Panchatantra is a collection of attractively told stories about the five ways that help the human being succeed in life. Pancha means five and tantra means ways or strategies or principles. Addressed to the king's children, the stories are primarily about statecraft and are popular throughout the world

                                                                                                                               
             

विद्वत्त्वं  नृपत्वं  नैव तुल्यं कदाचन  



स्वदेशे पूज्यते राजा विद्वान् सर्वत्र पूज्यते  


Scholar and king are never comparable. King is 



worshipped in his country, but scholar is worshipped 




everywhere. 







మిత్ర లాభ గాధ ముగిసిన పిదపను
మిత్ర భేద కధను మొదలిడగను
విష్ను శర్మ యాన విష్నువు యాశీస్సు
తెలుగు తల్లి యొక్క దీవ నొండు ! 1


తాత్పర్యము



మిత్ర లాభము యనెడి కధ ముగిసిన పిదప, మిత్ర భేదము యనెడి కధను సుళువైన తెలుగు పద్యములుగా వ్రాయుటకు శ్రీ మహావిష్ణువు యాశీస్సు మరియు శ్రీ విష్ణు శర్మ యానతి యయినది..


EnglishAfter completion of the part containing the story of "Gaining of Friends" Lord Vishnu blessed and the author "Panchatantra" Sree Vishnu Sarma ordered that I proceed to translate the next part "Losing of Friends" in simple Telugu Poetry form.


జంబుకమ్ము కదిలె శబ్దపు దిక్కుకు  
కాన శబ్ద మొచ్చు కారణమును 
కొంత దూర మేగి కనుగొనె యొక భేరి
భయము గొల్పు సద్దు భేరి సేసె!  41

తాత్పర్యము

ఈ విధముగ యోచించిన నక్క శబ్దము వచ్చిన దిశకు వెళ్ళీ చూడగా అక్కడ యొక యొద్ధ భేరి కాన వచ్చెను. ఆ భేరియే శబ్దము సేయుచుండెను. 

English: 

So thinking, the fox went in the direction of the sound and found a drum there. It was this drum that was making the fearful sound,



పెద్ద చెట్టు కింద పడియుండె నా భేరి

గాలి వీచ చెట్టు కొమ్మ లూగి

పడగ భేరి పైన పెద్ద శబ్దము చేసె 

భయము వీడి నక్క భేరి చీల్చె!  42

తాత్పర్యము


ఆ యుద్ధ భేరి ఒక పెద్ద వృక్షము కింద యున్నది. గాలికి ఆ చెట్టు కొమ్మలు ఊగి ఆ భేరి పైన పడ గానే పెద్ద శబ్దమొచ్చుచుండెనని గమనించిన నక్క భయము వదిలి ఆ భేరిని పగుల గొట్టెను.  





English: The drum was lying under a big tree. When the branches of the tree fell on the drum, it was making huge sound. Knowing the truth, the fox was rid of fear and it broke the drum open.


కధను చెప్పి బలికె కరటక మిత్రుడు
ఆఙ్ఞ యయిన నేను యడవి యెల్ల
యరసి యరచి రెవరొ యంత భీకరముగ
యెరిగి మరలి వత్తు యాన తిండు!  43





తాత్పర్యము

కరటకుని మిత్రుడైన దమనకుడు, పింగళకుని చూసి ఇట్లు పలికెను. "రాజా! మీరు ఆనతిచ్చిన నేను యడవి యెల్ల గాలించి ఇంత భయంకరముగ అరిచినదెవరో తెలుసుకొని రాగల వాడను. ఆనతిండు"

English: The friend of Karataka, Damanaka said, "Oh! King! If you order me I will make thorough search of the forest and find out who made such horrendous sound"

రాజు యానతీయ రయమున చనియెను
శబ్ద మర్మ మెరుగ జంబుకమ్ము
మృగ రాజు మదిని మెదిలె సంశయమోటి
నక్క వినయములను నమ్మ దగునె!  44





తాత్పర్యము

రాజు యానతి తీసుకొని దమనకుడు శబ్ద రహస్యమును చేదించుటకు వేగముగా వెడలెను. కాని మృగరాజు మనసులో ఒక సందేహము తలెత్తెను. "ఈ నక్క వినయములను నమ్మ వచ్చునో లేదో?" 

English: Taking permission from the King, Damanaka hurried into the forest to know the origin of the sound. But Pingalaka had a doubt in his mind whether the wily fox can be trusted.













Thursday, September 27, 2018


HONORABLE BRUTUS AND HIS IT MINION

ON LINES OF ANTONY'S SPEECH IN "JULIUS CAESAR 

*********************
The IT handle of Congress is deriving sadistic pleasure by the tag line " PM Chor Hai". Dacoits calling honest statesman CHOR like Brutus justifying his murderous attack on Caesar. Faced with the prospect of total decimation in 2019, Congress is desperate to find an issue to even show a sembkance of fight! What do the weak do? Just what Duryodhana did by molesting the most pious Draupadi.  Result is known.

But, because we follow Dharma we should not remain mere spectators to the vilification of a great statesman. Here, I reproduce a series of my tweets to the Kaurava  Sena. 
Which field @INCIndia minions spared from large scale loot? Their revered leader Indira claimed corruption was global phenomenon. Now, that political corruption vanished, fearing total oblivion, @RahulGandhi uses a mini brain to invent false rhetoric. 
@divyaspandana @ndtv
Minions of @INCIndialooted funds of sportsmen.They went abegging for training. @narendramodi
gave sports life, saw funds allotted go to sportsmen. We got Medals! True! Modi,CHOR,stole funds, hitherto going to brokers 
@RahulGandhi is BRUTUS,waiting for exit! @divyaspandana
@ndtv
1
Show this thread

Minions of @INCIndia ruined  nation thru' quid pro quo so much that brother looted brother, sister looted sister, spouse looted spouse. @narendramodi
 showed the real India to world! True! He is CHOR. @RahulGandhi is BRUTUS.  People'll  show him his place.@divyaspandana @ndtv

Minions of @INCIndialooted self respect of poor women by making their life hard. @narendramodi built toilets for them n gave back their respect. True! Modi is CHOR and @RahulGandhi
is honorable Brutus, who waits to run on streets of Rome!@divyaspandana @ndtv

Minions of @INCIndia looted houses meant for martyrs.. @narendramodI  brought transperancy and allotted houses to poor. True! Modi stole from these looters and gave to deserving. He is CHOR. But @RahulGandhi is an honorable Brutus waiting for Judgment Day. @divyaspandana @ndtv

Minions of @INCIndia, through middlemen looted BOFORS for commissions and packed the middleman out of country. Modi treated army with respect, removed middlemen n bribery. True! @narendramodi is CHOR and @RahulGandhi  is honorable Brutus waiting for his nemesis  @divyaspandana

Minions of @INCIndia looted coal from mines and kept thousands of villages in dark. @narendramodi stole the coal and electrified villagers and educated them. True! Modi is CHOR and @RahulGandhi is an honorable Brutus, waiting for people to chase him. @divyaspandana @ndtv

Minions of @INCIndia looted rations thru" 1.25 cr bogus ration cards and routed the goods to black market. @narendramodi
 stole these cards and gave rations to deserving. True! Modi is :CHOR n 
@RahulGandhi is an honorable Brutus. Waiting for the same fate! 
@divyaspandana @ndtv

Minions of @INCIndia looted gas cylinders to market them in black. @narendramodi stole 5.5 crore connections from looters and distributed to those who deserve. True! Modi is "CHOR' and @RahulGandhi is an honorable man like Brutus, "ll face  same fate!  @divyaspandana @ndtv

Willy-nilly @divyaspandana spoke sweet truth calling @narendramodi "CHOR" 
She could not fathom what he stole from 
@INCIndia looters of people's wealth. Husband of Sonia n father of@RahulGandhi
Rajiv coneded, 82 paise of every Re was looted.  @ndtv


Since 2002, @INCIndia attacked @narendramodi with choicest abuses.Each time, he emerged stronger n became world statesman.A confused, listless lady abuses him "CHOR". Thank you! @divyaspandana We welcome it!. Like Krishna, PM stole billions of hearts by good work. @RahulGandhi

Friday, August 31, 2018

PART - 1 :CAN MODI WIN

Opinion polls on the possible scenario post 2014 elections give a thin edge to the BJP led NDA, ruling out a landslide to it despite the Modi factor. I call these as "Sham Polls". Alliances are yet to be worked out by both the Congress and the BJP. On its part the BJP is batting and betting for a clear majority on its own while the Congress has doubts of its reaching the triple digit mark. Hence, it is batting for alliances with all parties (including traditional rivals at state level). Their desperation is understandable as a strong anti incumbency undercurrent is palpable from Kashmir to Kanyakumari. Hence, Congress, in its hour of crisis, is trying to consolidate or polarise (to put in their own words) votes of a particular community for themselves or their potential allies, showing the demon of communal politics that might be played by BJP under the leadership of Modi. Will this work this time around?. Let us examine in minute detail.

It is true, in India polls are won on loyalties of caste, religion, money and muscle power of the individual contestants and in many cases on local factors. Congress has cleverly exploited the "fear factor" all these decades to keep one particular section of voters under constant threat of a possible marginalisation of their communities under BJP and now, in the words of their stooge media, a highly polarising figure, Modi. A systematic campaign is unleashed on the leader and whosoever is seen joining hands or sharing dais with him,  by a media which is pliable to the ruling party, for reasons best known to them. The media campaign unleashed by the Congress on all that are close to Modi is such that even hard core BJP cadres started reacting with scepticism to the possibility of BJP under Modi really riding to power in 2014. A clinical analysis of all elections since 1952 till 2009 suggests that Congress was losing its foothold constantly across India despite projecting itself as protector of minorities, downtrodden and the hungry masses. Where did all this vote go? Let us examine it later.


First, let us see how far the opinion polls hold good in a highly diversified democracy like India and in a highly polarised atmosphere which is the own the creation of the Congress. During the 2009 elections results predicted by opinion polls and exit polls read as under.

                                                            Pre-poll surveyS

Agency                   Dates                                                                                    Result
CNN/IBN,ICDS       8Jan to 15 Sep.2009           UPA 215-235, NDA 165-185, others 125-135

Star-Nielson            5Mar to 17 Mar.2009          UPA 257(Cong.144),NDA -184, Others 96+

Star-Neilson            26Mar to 3 Apr.2009           UPA 203 9Cong155), NDA-191, Others -104+39+

Outlook-The Week   Mar-Apr 2009                    UPA 234 (Cong 144), NDA86, Others -112+

Times of India         March, 2009                       UPA 201 (Cong 146), NDA- 195, Others-147+

                                                               ExIt polls

CNN/IBN-
Dainik Bhaskar         13 May,2009                      UPA 185-205,NDa 165-185, Others 135-165

Star-Neilson                  -DO-                            UPA 199, NDA 196, Others 136

India TV-C-Voter          -DO-                            UPA 189-201, NDA 183-195, Others 105-121


                                @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@


PART 2: WHY CONGRESS MIGHT LOSE HEAVILY IN 2014

The UPA got 262 seats, still short of a simple majority and NDA got 159 seats. No poll, Pre or exit came anywhere nearer the reality even though the pre-poll survey was held just before to the election dates and exit poll, as usual, after the polls. What the brightest minds, as Media projects them, could not predict was the undercurrent of the middle class sentiment about the robust economic growth during the five year period of UPA 1 rule, the near absence of any major scams on the lines of BOFORS and the veiled honesty of the PM. Added to all this was the disruptive politics played by the Communists and the botched up vote- for-cash scam on which the BJP could not cash in, with a hostile media playing truant and a tried and tired leader of the BJP being projected as PM, though he deserves all the respect of an honest leader who helped the BJP grow by leaps and bounds.

This time around, it is a different story. BJP has got a young,dynamic and new face as its PM candidate. He is known to be incorruptible and lauded by the world press so. His no-nonsense approach, his firm grip on administration and governance ,and his relentless work in his own state to develop it as role model  won him laurels from the middle classes and upper classes as well. His oratory skills are an added advantage. He connects to the masses directly. Despite all the calumny spread by his rivals, the fact that 31% of  votes of a particular community were polled by him in 2012 in his state stands him in good stead in the eyes of minorities too. Here, the Congress game plan of polarising minority votes en bloc might fail horribly as sections of these communities are highly educated now and their wisdom in rejecting a non-performing and corrupt administration can not be ruled out. So, votes of the middle and upper classes of these communities are certain to be divided between the BJP, Congress and few regional parties who did a good job at governance like Naveen Patnaik in Odisha and Jayalalitha in Tamilnadu.

The second factor that works totally against the UPA 2 is the slowing growth rate, absence of employment opportunities, institutionalised corruption in almost all Congress ruled states and Union Governments, the near non-corrupt image the non-Congress CM s built for themselves and the rising cost of living with no corresponding increase in real wages. Added to this the middle classes are now more restless about an infrastructure comparable to Europe, China and USA. This is partly because of their increased exposure to these countries through their own personal experience, by word of mouth or the information dissemination through internet and media. Total absence of any modernization in infrastructure despite huge investments being made by the governments is apparent and the corruption in these sectors is so monumental to escape their attention. So, it is a fait accompli that middle class, educated voters vote en masse against the ruling dispensation and with a strong leader in the opposite camp, it is anybody's guess to whom majority of  these votes go.  The third or fourth fronts are already discounted by these classes in view of their past experience and the absence of a credible,strong and single leader for these fronts adds to their disadvantage. So, the possibility of majority vote of these sections going to Modi - led BJP is near certain. There is a misnomer that middle classes are usually apathetic to voting and hence, the possibility of Modi getting substantial numbers to polling booths is remote. The strong aversion to the ruling dispensation, this time around, will see more voters from these sections queueing up in front of polling booths . The scenario is also changing fast as proved by the voting patterns I am going to give since 1952 election.

That leaves the highly illiterate, poor and orthodox voters who form a major chunk of the total voters. It is a fact these voters are swayed easily by the sops the parties offer on the eve of elections. Added to this the caste, community and religious leaders have a vice like grip on these voters and pattern of voters of a particular religion or caste voting en bloc to a candidate as dictated by their leaders is not uncommon. It is here the Congress wants to play its cards right by entering into alliances with the regional strong leaders like KCR and Jagan in AP, Nitish in Bihar or BSP/SP or BSP+SP in UP etc., Left in West Bengal or if possible Mamata+Left there. How far this strategy pays dividends is to be analysed carefully.

Two factors work here. If there is no strong anti-incumbency wave as in 2009 against the ruling party, these alliances work well. If there is a strong incumbency and there is no strong leader in the opposition camp too, alliances work. In the present scenario it is a double blow to the Congress. They have two negatives. There is a very strong anti-incumbency against Congress in almost all states and there is a very strong leader in the opposition camp who can sway the voters easily. So, if other parties enter into alliance with the Congress there is every possibility that not only the Congress loses but they may too lose their voter base, if the strong currents in favour of Modi turn into a storm. These parties too assess their strengths and weaknesses vis-a-vis Modi and may shy away from Congress if only to retain their base in their states. They may, instead play safe to contest alone thus giving BJP an edge in polls by retaining their strong vote banks in tact. This is a possibility as these parties know well the strong anti-currents the Congress is facing today. Contesting alone, it will be a pipe dream for Congress in many states to take on a resurgent BJP under a strong united leadership. Further, each of these regional leaders nurture their individual ambition to be PM, even if for few months. This leaves bitterness in these alliances as no one leader has a pan India mass base as the Congress supremo or an Advani or a Modi.

Then the issue of flagship schemes like FSB and LAB remains. With the given limited time for elections and the many intricacies involved in the schemes and the fact that many states already have subsidized food grain schemes in their states, together make it difficult for Congress to take them to the grass roots or to fight the incumbency factor in many states, dangling these schemes as a bait. THE GENERAL RISE IN COST OF LIVING AND INCREASING ASPIRATIONS OF MASSES FOR A BETTER LIFE ADD TO THE DISCOMFITURE OF THE RULING PARTY. It should be noted that majority of big states are ruled by non-congress parties presently. Here cadre base of Congress has thinned over the years. In at least three states, Delhi, AP and Rajasthan, where Congress is ruling, people are totally disillusioned with the present governments. That leaves only Karnataka where again strategic alliances might help BJP and Maharashtra where the picture is unclear. On the other hand, the stock of BJP in the states being ruled by them is intact. They built up strong cadres over the years.

The game plan of Congress to win both sides in AP by vertically dividing the state into two parts without doing much home work boomeranged and if the present scenario is unresolved, no party would be ready to be in alliance with Congress in the state. BJP has, on the other hand almost formalised  a deal with TDP, which many in AP feel is a good homecoming for TDP as they have never pardoned CBN leaving NDA in a huff. In other states too strong regional parties are sending the right signals to the NDA and this coupled with Modi's charm will certainly help BJP.

On the whole, the scenario for BJP under Modi is quite encouraging. But, will he be able to muster enough strength of 300+ seats along with allies is a question that haunts many a BJP supporter. For this we may have to go back to the voting patterns in the country since 1952. The patterns show a clear trend. Whether, a repetition of the trend helps BJP or Modi s a big question.


                                          @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

PART 3: POLLING TRENDS SINCE 1952 FOR THE GOP  VS OTHER PARTIES:

In the 1952 elections Congress polled 44.99% of the votes polled across the country and secured 364 seats out of the 489 seats. More than 40 parties contested polls. Socialist Party stood a far second and Communists and Bharatiya Janasangh with a little over 3% vote share stood third and fourth. Polity was divided across the country in India during the first election itself, with a lot of non serious parties fighting elections. Congress securing less than 50% of vote share immediately after independence is a significant factor to be reckoned when we talk about the sharp divisions in the electorate in India.

In the 1957 elections Congress repeated the feat by securing 47.77% of total votes polled and 371 seats out of 490 seats. Independents secured 19% of the vote share, a significant factor to be reckoned. Socialist party retained its vote share while Janasangh secured almost 3% more than earlier elections.

In the 1962 general elections the vote share of Congress declined to 44.72% and it saw rise of regional forces like the DMK and Akali Dal and others and significant gains were recorded by the communists and Swatantra Party while Janasangh retained its share of vote. The decline of Congress as a national force started here though subsequent swings in its fortunes were seen later for various reasons.

In the 1967 election, which saw a disastrous war in October 1962 with China, demise of Nehru and Shastri, two Prime Ministers in the interim,Congress retained power. But these elections saw Congress mauled electorally though it retained majority with 283 seats out of 520. This election saw many states elect non-congress governments. With  two factions led by Indira Gandhi and Morarji Desai slugging it out, Indira Gandhi was expelled from the party when she formed the Congress (I) and led the first minority government in 1969 supported by CPI.

But unwilling to run a minority government Indira declared mid term elections in 1971 and rode her party to power with a landslide of 352 seats against 283 in the earlier election. She took bold decisions like war on Pakistan to liberate East Pakistan, now Bangladesh. This is  significant factor to be reckoned with, as charisma of a leader could win elections for a party struggling to keep its vote share. Congress increased its vote share to 43.68% despite many regional parties entering the fray and making the elections more divisive. BJP can hope to rewrite history by securing a similar vote share riding on the incumbency factor and charisma of its leader.

But the enormous economic cost of the war and refugee influx from Bangladesh and non-cooperation by USA and other world countries led India to its worst economic doom during this phase. Added to this the Allahabad High Court set aside her election in 1975. She declared emergency, arrested all dissenting voices and extended the term of Parliament. This is when strong anti-incumbency against the Congress swept the country, similar to the one we are seeing today.

For the first time in 1977, Congress was routed totally in elections and the newly formed Janata Party, with no strong leader to represent it won 51.89% of popular vote and 345 seats. A loose conglomerate of individual leaders having personal ambitions, the Janata Party died a natural death in 1980 with internal dissensions. In 1977 Congress fought elections on pre-poll alliances and on its own secured a meagre 34.52% of votes. Besides internal dissensions the Janata Party Government of the day appointed a commission of inquiry into the lapses during Emergency and a witch hunt was unleashed on her during the period by which she gained tremendous amount of sympathy across the country. This is significant as the Congress is repeating the same mistake in case of Modi, by which his sympathy vote is adding by the day among fence-sitters and this might be the game changer for BJP. Congress did not learn lessons from history even though some old leaders leaders of those days still continue to hold senior positions in the party. The reason might be that a sustained effort is being made from within the party to see the end of the road to the party in these elections.

In 1980 when Janata Party Government fell due to internal dissensions, Indira rode a wave of sympathy against the witch hunt by opposition leaders and won a landslide in alliance with smaller parties. Congress on its own secured simple majority with 286 seats. The vote share of Congress, though,  dipped further as it fought in alliance with smaller parties.

In 1984, after assassination of Indira, in the elections Congress secured 414 seats, securing 49.14% of votes. The TDP formed by NTR was the only party that stood the storm of sympathy wave and secured 30 seats in AP becoming the main opposition in Lok Sabha. Again, it is a watershed in Indian democracy. NTR proved how a non-corrupt leader with oratory skills to reach the common man can do to withstand a storm caused by sympathy wave. This is a very significant factor we should reckon in  the 2014 elections. No vote banks were necessary when it is sympathy, clean image and efficiency. In 2014, Modi is secure on both counts. Sympathy vote because of the constant hounding by Congress and media and his own added charisma.

The 1989 elections saw a reversal of fortunes for the congress that secured 197 seats with 39.53% vote share. The period between 1989 and 1991 saw a churning in Indian politics with faction leaders of various parties fighting for PM post and a mid term election was held in 1991.

The 1991 elections were held in two phases. First before the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi in which Congress fared very poorly and post assassination when Congress swept polls but still got only 244 seats out of 545 with 35.66% vote share. This election saw the phenomenal rise of BJP which secured 120 seats with 20.04% vote share despite sympathy wave due to Rajiv's death.

Post 1991 the Congress could manage to run a minority government for full five years under the able leadership of Mr.P.V.Narasimha Rao, the first Prime Minister from Congress from non-Nehru family to rule for five years with full authority and without outside interference. Here too we have to see how an effective leader can come out of the shadows of the dynasty and still rule the nation efficiently. Many voters voting in 2014 might be knowing the 1991-96 phase and the present leadership and compare both. This will be an additional scoring point for BJP.

In 1996, the BJP led the chart with 161 seats and the Congress stood second with 140 seats. Though A.B.Vajpayee formed the government, it could not muster enough support to cobble up a stable alliance and he resigned without facing Parliament. Congress played second fiddle to Deve Gowda and allowed him top form the United Front Government.After much real politic played by the Congress the UF Government fell in 1998 and fresh elections were held. Though A.B.Vjpayee formed Government of NDA, it lasted few months and fresh elections were held  in end 1999. Congress that secured 28.80% vote share in 1996 dropped further to 25.82% in 1998.

During 1999 elections, Congress, though regaining the 28.80% vote share lost power to NDA which ruled for five years with outside support from TDP.

In 2004 BJP lost power to the Congress led UPA alliance though it retained its vote share of 1999. The first term of UPA saw India grow phenomenally due to many factors despite lack of  efficient delivery system of the government and riding on the back of middle class support it retained power in 2009.

The period from 2009 to 2013 saw the gradual decline of morality in public life with many scandals involving top leaders of ruling alliance coming out into the open. We stand now at the crossroads with the nation looking for change and Modi emerging as the undisputed leader of change mongers.

If we observe the voting percentage patterns, more number of people got voting rights since 1952 due to reduction in age to 18 years for voting. The percentage of voting substantially increased from 44.77% in 1952 to 59.7% in 2009. When strong anti incumbency was discernible it climbed up to 63%.

                                        @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

PART 4: IT WILL BE  A LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR MODI

The analysis of various elections throws up significant points.

1. The Congress vote share dropped significantly from 49% in 1957 to 28% in the recent polls. The BJP gained substantially. From a meagre 3% vote in 1952 as Jana Sangh it could climb up to 23+% in 2004 but dropped slightly to 19% in 2009. Now, its share of vote is bound to increase due to factors mentioned supra.

2. When a strong leader that can enthuse own party cadres and masses alike is leading a party, the party can win a land slide as proved in 1971 elections by Indira Gandhi or 1984 elections when NTR won against a strong wave of sympathy for congress.

3. When a strong leader is haunted and hounded by rivals and media alike the sympathy generated for the leader surpasses all other considerations, as it did to Indira Gandhi in 1980.

4. The Congress stock among voters is down constantly since 1952 and it is now dependent extensively on its regional allies. These allies might not bet on a declining party forever and might ditch it at the right moment.

Let us apply these factors in the present elections. That Modi is as good as or a better leader that can connect to masses, than Indira Gandhi need not be stressed. The very fact that he retained power in his state for three consecutive elections despite the calumny spread by rivals and  still continues to be  the most revered leader in his state speaks volumes about his leadership qualities.

Till 2012, when he was re elected as CM of Gujarat for a third time, he was not known by many voters outside his own state. But once his name started making rounds as PM candidate of BJP, a systematic campaign was unleashed by the GOP through select media houses about the 2002 riots. In their over enthusiasm to stop him in his tracks even before the declaration as PM candidate, the Congress unleashed a no holds barred mudslinging against the leader. This added to the image of Modi. The man whose name was till then not known to many voters in the country has now become a house hold name in the whole nation. The congress discomfiture at the sudden and unexpected declaration of Modi saw its leaders running for cover and they tried to pit one leader of BJP against the other. The ultimate result was BJP emerged stronger and more united now.

Congress, in its effort to play down the effect of Modi started talking Modi, singing Modi, dancing Modi and finally they forgot that they are a national party with a leader whose name they forgot! Alas! The situation was brought upon them by their own ineptness of handling a strong adversary. Once, Modi's name started doing rounds in the country regional channels picked up the opportunity and started singing praises of Modi. So now his clout with voters has doubled and is adding by the day. Not only that, the sympathy factor is adding up by the day with constant bashing of Modi by Congress leaders and leaders of other parties alike. Unable to digest his popularity Congress is rubbing salt on its own wounds by constantly hounding his close associates, that is increasing his popularity multi fold.

In a way, Modi is not doing that much to improve his own image among voters as the inept Congress leaders are doing for him. It is no surprise, therefore, if he repeats a 1980 by Indira Gandhi, a 1983 by NTR or a 1984 by Rajiv Gandhi. Whatever, it is, it is going to be a landslide victory for Modi led BJP in 2014. The writing on the wall is clear! If he wins elections to Lok Sabha once, it can be reckoned as the last rites of the Grand Old Party forever!

                                       @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein are personal opinions of the blogger and not taken from any source. As per the data quoted supra, the blogger collected it from various web-sites and the authenticity of the whole or part of the data can not vouched as totally correct by the blogger.