Wednesday, November 4, 2015




Krishna Arjun Still, Image,

When I started the series IT IS MODI ALL THE WAY with reference to Bihar polls, my first sentence was "Bihar is a difficult terrain to predict the outcome of polls". But, with the final phase of poling slated tomorrow, now I feel, after all, Bihar is part of India and voters there are as mature as any in any other State in India and as nationalist as other voters. A lot was said that Bihar voted for caste and it is difficult to douse the caste cauldron burning in the state for decades or is it centuries? As I started analyzing the pattern of voting in Bihar in the past few elections, I found to my surprise that there had been perceptible shift in the pattern of voting in Bihar. When I predicted that Modi would lead BJP to a landslide in September, 2013 blog i SAID migrants would play a large role in voting patterns that beat vote calculations by the one-sided Media Pundits who try to pluck hairs on balded heads. My confidence now turned into euphoria, after four phases. No! I am not on the ground nor do I get any ground report from the ground. I observe things from macro perspective, read, see crowds at meetings, analyze issues, analyze the tolerance level of all players, analyze the truth and the lie and come to a conclusion. And, the conclusion is NDA is winning hands down.

I can not simply say that NDA is winning and escape.  I have to offer reasoning. Or I will be one among the flock of psephologists who turn mostly apologists, if their arithmetic goes wrong. I too am too good at arithmetic. Even at this late age I can total four digit figures in my mind and tell you total faster than the tolerant intellectuals. But I do not depend on statistics that are 93% times wrong, (may be including mine own) including this statistic. My confidence stems forth from what Media reports and does not report. Paid views of Media that appear as ground reports and activity on Social Media add to my calculations.

The first factor that goes in favor of NDA  is the forty+ seats that Congress is contesting. Any casual observer sees the fact that both Lalu and Nitish are fighting for one-up- man- ship and there is no indication anywhere that they are trying to help Congress candidates. Congress has neither leaders and cadres in Bihar. In 2010 it earned 5% vote but in LS it increased the tally to 8% being national party. After LS loss Congress never tried too re-organize any state unit and depended mostly on Modi-bashing. Congress should have known that Indira-bashing and Sonia-bashing without issues helped them earlier. Now Modi is showing results (indication is its showing in KDMC polls, where substantial chunk of migrants from Bihar and UP live). So, here BJP can take 35 seats into their kitty without effort.

Then the Owaisi factor comes into picture. Most of the anti-Modi Media at the instance of the Lutyens' bosses in Delhi said Owaisi factor would be nil.  The erstwhile vote banks have shifted allegiance to Owaisi in MH, They will do it everywhere as they lost confidence on pseudo-secular parties. He is going to divide the Muslim vote and hence, it is going to be cake walk to BJP too in V th phase too. And there was one (paid?) news item in one of the leading news papers with photos of young, educated Muslim girls not wearing veil. The news stated that Nitish played the cleverest trick to see that counter polarization did not happen by seeing that Muslim presence was not seen. What kind of stupid argument is this? Faith is sacrosanct. Neither Nitish nor Modi can change religious faith. So, it is clear that modern Muslims voted in favor of BJP, ditching MGB. It may be meager  but  each vote counts.

The third indication came again through Media. There was a news item in a Congress owned paper that MGB tried to win perception battle through Media canvassing. And the reporter stated that this would help to swing the undecided voters in their favor in the next phases. This indicated two points. One, that MGB lost all hopes in the first two phases.

You can always see in a verbal duel also, the man who is losing argument resorts to abuse. Irfan Habib is a fresh example. Under attack from BJP, their supporters, even people like Madhavan Nair, Kamal Hassan, Vidya Balan, Anupaam Kher, Shyam Benegal etc,., and to defend his remark equating RSS and ISIS, he resorted to abusing RSS as Idiots and continued the abuse that the criminal acts of RSS went unpunished. If there were criminal acts why were they not banned like SIMI etc.,?  Why were there no hangings like Kasab etc., of RSS people?  Idiotic Scoundrels is what I named IS sympathizers in India. Let him quote a criminal act of RSS and seek punishment. He is playing to the gallery. These guys, graying in age and thought are preying on an out and out service organization?  How many times these self-proclaimed intellectuals reached a disaster spot as fast as RSS?

Sorry! I drifted. I grow intolerant whenever I think of these moronic intellectuals. So, like the weak person, who challenges and creates a perception he is strong, never wins the battle MGB too can not. It will be like, " You beat me, you beat my brother-in-law" Brother-in-law is in US. How can you beat him? But a perception is created he is strong.  Losers resort to this tactic. It was enough to state that the first two phases too went NDA way heavily. Large scale voting, youth and women tilted scales. They do not go for traditional voting. So fear gripped the opposite camp. So the effort was to create wron perception.

Later phases went totally in favor of NDA. So, a wrong perception was sought to be created that Vth phase goes totally against NDA as it is Muslim stronghold. My dear analysts, if one tries to polarize the reverse polarization happens without effort. And this time the vote is for Bihar to come into mainstream of Indian culture of tolerance and non-violence. Even Muslims, a few moderates, may swing to NDA to live in harmony. All the three MGB parties tried to keep communities in paranoia about Majority. No major incidents after Modi took over threw these parties out of gear and they started highlighting incidents of personal animosity as proof of intolerance. Despite this, BJP has been winning throughout the nation. On reservation issue both Nitish and Lalu had to eat a humble pie.  One by one, their acts of divide and rule are getting exposed by their lopsided approach. The large attendance and the response to Modi meetings in these MGB strongholds  is not perception but truth. Presence of young women in Bihar, in Maoist strongholds, is indication of the faith voters have on Modi.

Compared, meetings of Nitish and Rahul attracted sparse crowds. Lalu attracts, as usual good crowds but enthusiasm was lacking. Nitish had to explain many times that he concentrated on small groups. In BJP there are 150 strong leaders who have been doing this better. Nitish lost not only election battle but perception battle too. The intolerance of Congress with Bihar loss and Damad excesses is known already. 

One more news item in an Anti-Modi paper that Satta Bazar gave this and that in Delhi and that the players did not want to identify, etc., was planted after fourth phase. Such news, apparently planted, prove one fact. The planters lost the plot.  

In 2012, Congress enlisted the support of Mr.Keshubhai Patel, one of the strongest Patel leaders to take on Modi. They expected anti-incumbency a total shift of Patel votes. On counting day, Kapil Sibal, the zero-loss lawyer cum politico appeared in one famous news channel. This anti-Modi channel started showing leads to Congress. With a broad smile on his face, this master manipulator said, "Wait! This is the beginning. Once we enter Patel areas you will see decimation of Modi"  They entered Patel areas too and BJP  won hands down. Till evening, this man vanished, switched off phone and was unreachable to any channel. Those who  try to divide votes will not succeed in future in India.  Voters are changing. They are not bothered to visit Temple, Church, Mosque. They want happy life as in developed countries. Information is available to them with a click. They celebrate festivals, where they want to pray and dance and not fight. The Lalus, Nitishes, Sonias should realize this fast. Or they will meet their final Waterloo soon.

In 2014 AP Assembly elections too, one channel NTV was releasing one opinion poll every month before and after division. They used to show that Jagan was leading head-on. What happened? NDTVs and NTVs can not influence voters. Voters are mature enough.

In a nut-shell, I again re-state that NDA is going to sweep  the polls which will surprise and shock all political pundits. This is my final macro level analysis. As this is not based on actual voting patterns, I  do not feel bad if my prediction goes wrong.  I bet on 180+ seats to NDA.


 सर्वे भवन्तु सुखिनः

सर्वे सन्तु निरामयाः ।
सर्वे भद्राणि पश्यन्तु
मा कश्चिद्दुःखभाग्भवेत् ।
 शान्तिः शान्तिः शान्तिः ॥
1: Om, May All become Happy,

2: May All be Free from Illness.
3: May All See what is Auspicious,
4: May no one Suffer.
5: Om PeacePeacePeace.

 भद्रं कर्णेभिः शृणुयाम देवाः ।
भद्रं पश्येमाक्षभिर्यजत्राः ।
स्थिरैरङ्गैस्तुष्टुवाग्‍ँसस्तनूभिः ।
व्यशेम देवहितं यदायूः ।
1: Om, O Devas, May we Hear with our Ears what is Auspicious,
2: May we See with our Eyes what is Auspicious and Adorable,
3: May we be Prayerful (in Life) with Steadiness in our Bodies (and Minds),
4: May we Offer our Lifespan allotted by the Devas (for the Service of God),
स्वस्ति  इन्द्रो वृद्धश्रवाः ।
स्वस्ति नः पूषा विश्ववेदाः ।
स्वस्ति नस्तार्क्ष्यो अरिष्टनेमिः ।
स्वस्ति नो वृहस्पतिर्दधातु ॥
 शान्तिः शान्तिः शान्तिः ॥
5: May Indra (of Vedas) of great Wisdom and Glory grant us Well-Being (by bestowing wisdom),
6: May Pushan (The Sun God, The Nourisher) of great Knowledge grant us Well-Being (by nourishing us and granting knowledge),
7: May Tarksya (A Mythical Bird) of great Protective Power ( a thunderbolt to misfortunes ) grant us Well-Being (by protecting us from misfortunes),
8: (And) May Brihaspati (The Guru of the Devas) grant us Well-Being,
9: OmPeacePeacePeace (at the Adibhautika, Adidaivika and Adyatmika levels),