IT IS MODI ALL THE WAY IN BIHAR - PART 24
CLEAR PICTURE EMERGES-BATTLE LINES DRAWN
As usual, analysts are analyzing (me too), pollsters are rolling out figures, Astrologers are astrolizing, aka, predicting, grand standers are enjoying grass, leaders are swearing, alliances are dichotomizing, splinters are are spitting at each other, sprinters like Rahul are sprinting in Private Jets, Nitish went to attend Charlie Lose show, Lalu is busy feeding fodder to his two sons, one of them, a budding cricketer who knows his balls and bats well (they say), the other is better than Lalu (they say). In a nut shell this is what is, as of today, in Bihar. Meanwhile, Satta Bazar started investing heavily on who wins, who loses! Some will lose, some will win; not polls, but heavy money.
These poll predictions are like Sensex. It falls, rises, falls, rises and analysts give reasons that defy all logic. Latest fad is China. Morning, Sensex guys (I mean, investors) are bullied to believe that Chinese pain is India's gain, Sensex gains. By afternoon perception changes, Sensex loses. "China pain is our pain too, as the only variation is in noses, or else we are like brothers", so Sensex falls. By 3.30 PM, Institutional Investors and Bulls pour huge money into the Market saying, "Bullshit! Why will India sneeze if Chinese noses are blocked? They have no noses at all! So, this is all rumor!" The common investor, small investor loses, all live happily thereafter, except the common man.
One fine example of this was business pages in news papers, when there was this Housing Bust in USA due to the Mortgage crisis created by Lehman Brothers. I usually read all news including business pages except what Kangana Raut was wearing that day. So, during this period markets were falling, rising, falling, rising, falling.... I was reading daily., One day it was reported that the housing crisis was unreal and big investors invested huge amounts. Next day, the market got news the housing crisis was really real and they fell. Next day, there was rumor that the news that the housing crisis was really, really real was really unreal and the markets rose. It continued like that. Big fish were gaining, small losing.
So, the channel, Media House or the Pollster, who gets invested hugely in, conducts a survey of one man in a village, who says he is Yadav and will vote Lalu, Pat comes a result," 100% Yadavs in Bihar are ready to vote Lalu." Next, panel discussion is held, where all those who do not blog like me are called and they analyze the shift and shrift, collect their fee and go happily. None knows that the person who told the Pressser (One who presses) is a Kurmi, and the shift was unreal.
I remember a joke I heard or read when young.
There was one very famous Ayurvedic physician in a village. His methods were unconventional. For example, for a patient suffering from high fever, he was giving a medicine to be taken with Chicken Soup. WOW! Fever Gayab! Once, he had to visit another village for a week. He called the budding son and told him the tricks of trade. He gave some potions and told him under which conditions which should be taken with Chicken or Corn Soup.
First day, the local carpenter came. This guy gave medicine and asked him to take the medicine with Chicken Soup. He was miraculously cured. The third day a local plumber came. By that time this youth, below thirty years like 43% or 58% of Bihar voters, started thinking. His perception of his father's thinking changed. "Why should I not try the other medicine and administer with Chicken Soup?" He thought. So, he gave the other medicine and asked him to take with Chicken Soup. That guy instantly died.
He wrote in his diary. "Chicken Soup is not suitable for plumbers, but suitable for carpenters". Dear Pollsters, the youth think. They will kill the goose of caste predictions you make. They will make their own entries. Traditional methods of Kurmis vote this guy, Yadavs vote that guy, Brahmins go for NOTA do not work now. There is change in thinking. People try new methods and kill aspirations of many. They know their pawns now. Stop making the nonsensical predictions. There are now, two factors that influence the voters. Local factors, strength of candidate, that none can assess. Second the leader of each group and his strengths. Here Modi wins hands down. Strength of strong candidates gets depleted due to the waves of stronger leaders but one or two survive.
If you think, this is my real blog your Sensex falls. This not really real nor is it really unreal. Keep your interest and investment for future reading. The following is really my real blog.
Here is what I have wanted to say. Lot of water passed under the bridge after I blogged my twelfth edition of "IT IS MODI ALL THE WAY IN BIHAR", only on Bihar polls. (Later parts were dealing with other issues with same headline). Many changes took place. But many of these changes were there in my analyses. I told in Part 2, Arvind Kejriwal would be an enigma and we could not predict whether he would be asset or liability. Still it is unclear. He has so many cases on hand and his entire time is spent on Modi bashing. So, it was proven. I said Mulayam would change stance and Pawar would be after power and these and others would distance themselves from Pariwar. I also said that Mulayam would not want Nitish as his competitor in national scene. Now, many analysts are parroting this, Pawar has powerful issues, he cant distance from Modi. I said Asaduddin would play a splinter role. He did. I said Shiva Sena would help BJP through back door. It is proven, as I will illustrate. I said Rahul would be non-player and he vanished. I said Nitish was the biggest Trojan horse in his camp and yesterday you could see him fighting with himself lonely while announcing candidates. I said Modi would stand tall and he did. You can read all news papers. I said NDA had an edge, today it has already won a moral victory.
WHAT HAPPENED IN BIHAR RECENTLY:
1. Nitish Factor:
Whatever happened did not happen in favor of Nitish. His body language yesterday was indication. He was not flanked by any senior leaders of the other parties. Lalu was notable absentee. Till now, there is no word from him. Usually, he blabbers on his selection potential. It is missing now. His only aim seems to be to position his two sons in the political fodder field of Bihar. The others with Nitish were dull and emaciated. Nitish spoke less on seat sharing and candidates and more on RSS and reservations. There too he fumbled, as it was he who first congratulated Hardik Patel when he gave a call for scrapping reservations. Now, he realized the potential danger this guy could cause if he holds meetings there. BJP is playing cards cleverly by not antagonizing OCs by passing legislation in Rajasthan providing 14% reservations to EBCs in OCs and 5% to Gujjars, Gujarat will come out with its policy today. And BJP, for the present, is pitching for continuation of the present policy. It is certain, BJP has many fronts, through which they can continue the debate without disturbing the apple cart. Today's U-Turn in US by the powerful Gujarat community is indication of the power of grassroots of RSS and BJP and other organizations in their fold. Nitish lost it before the game started.
2. Lalu Prasad Yadv:
Very less is heard from him now a days. I predicted this as the maverick politician would never pardon Nitish for calling him dirty names. Even now, Nitish is not apologetic. Lalu, who commands more share of vote in Bihar does not want to antagonize his core voters. There are reports in many news papers that the is no dichotomy between cadres of the two parties. They are going their own ways and acrimony is at the highest level. Confused voter goes to Modi, as they see hope in him. It seems that both parties will lose heavily in their strongholds and leadership is confused. Lalu is happy as he loses Zero. If he does not gain now, he will join hands with NDA in future. Nitish is almost isolated.
3. Mulam Singh Yadav:
As expected Mulayam arranged engagement ceremony for JDU and RJD and disengaged himself from the marriage function. Ostensible reason given was only five seats were given. Part of the larger game must have been, no it certainly is, thar Lalu and Mulayam, Sambandhis decided to give a taste of his own medicine to Nitish. Mulayam was closely moving with Modi and Lalu can never reach him unless Mulayam helps him. They knew Nitish was ambitious. The "Fair is foul, Foul is fair" politics of UP and Bihar temporarily made these two compromise and greet Nitish "King of Patna" as in Macbeth. The third was Sharad Yadav, who is traditionally opposed to Nitish be it caste or ambition. Once, he was declared Lalu played the game of Mulayam being out of the seat sharing formula. What he must have said was "Do not worry. He is my relation. I will convince him." So, Nitish fell for it. It took him time to realize the fault. For him there was no other go as he had many contenders for seats. Now, it is silent rebellion of sorts and we have to see how many rebels will eat into their vote share. If there was no trouble in the Bandhan, BJP would have waited for some time to announce candidates. They were so confident of winning, that, instead of inviting rebels into their fold, they left field wide open. Pawar, Mulayam led third front was aimed at ruining the chances of Nitish. Many RJD and JDU voters that are at loggerheads over the CM post or otherwise will prefer Mulayam. We cant just shoo him away that he has not got votes earlier. Between them they polled 4% earlier. Even JMM won one seat earlier. These splinter groups can neither be included in the Pariwar nor ignored totally. None of these parties are pro-BJP at any time. Only JDU was. This further adds to the discomfiture of Nitish.
4. Asaduddin Owaisi:
Few would have bet on Owaisi finally jumping into the field. Reason for Owaisi going round the country was his losing grip in Telangana. Here BJP is making huge forays into Hindu vote, thanks Modi Jee, and a continuing alliance with TDP or new one with TRS will help them. Owaisi knows aligning with Congress is suicidal now as there is pent up anger in both the new Telugu speaking states on Congress. He will eat into a chunk of MY votes besides Dalits, that were not votes in large numbers of BJP. He is educated and educated Muslims will split between Modi and Owaisi. This is denting Pariwar chances further.
5. Shiva Sena:
Few would have followed this angle. As I have said I have had a habit of reading even news that the editors would never have thought of reading. (There are many, who deal with a section each). Recently attacks on BJP by Shiva Sena have increased. Even today, in Saamna , there was an Editorial lambasting BJP and praising RSS for its stand on reservations. Previous issues that were in limelight were meat ban, auto permits to people speaking Marathi, the desalting scandal, their pitch to win seats in Bihar (they may get 0.5% or less vote), picking up fights with MH government on petty issues etc., I said, this would happen, in my second part in this series. And Media reports, "In further embarrassment to BJP ......" Where is embarrassment? BJP invites this. They may be working in tandem, who knows? It is history that both SS and MNS physically attacked migrants once upon a time. Though they mellowed down now, the previous anger is still there. If SS Minister pitches for auto permits to only Marathi speaking people it is aimed at Bihari and UP migrants. Nitish tried to cash in. But these migrants believe BJP as it is ruling locally. BJP rolled out figures that 70% per cent permits were given to outsiders last year even though the rule was there for decades on. The BJP Minister and CM, said in a lighter vein, that the SS minister must have joked. This is politics of diversity in unity. They are cleanly helping each other and most Maharastrians look at these parties as cousins, inseparable. Outsiders are circumspect about SS still.
Congress has no role in Bihar and in their desperation they started mocking and attacking Modi personally. This is causing serious embarrassment to Nitish, as Nitish is trying to contest the election on his track record. That is why both Lalu and Nitish gave a short shrift to Rahul. It might be true that Rahul might stay put in an outside nation till Bihar results were declared. If he is there, he may wean away 5% vote from Pariwar, by his stupidity. Even Sonia may be less conspicuous as Nitish is considering it as a personal battle. And Lalu, Mulayam have their own grudges on Congress. It is a lose-lose situation to Nitish.
With Communists fighting polls on their own, more vote split will happen in Pariwar camp. There are pockets of influence for CPI and CPI ML. Last time they got 4.71% fighting individually in Feb, 2005. 5.14% in October, 2005, 4% app. in October, 2010 and in LS elections did not show much impact. Taking their vote share, when contested individually, can be 4.25%. If they come together, there is chance of a 2 to 3 per cent addition. Those voters, who do not want to vote JDU or RJD, which they voted earlier, prefer these groupings as they do not vote BJP. This will dent Pariwar further.
8. Internal Surveys:
NDA internal survey is projected to give them 140+ with thirty more, keenly contested. They are aiming 150-180 seats. Pariwar internal survey gives them wash out. (Both are unconfirmed) Internal surveys are more reliable as they are scientific, give the correct picture and are drawn from cadres. Communists are expected to win good numbers, other groups are just spoilers of the game for Nitish.
Nitish jumped the tracks by supporting Hardik too early. He realized it later. So he started attacking RSS for their views. This is helping BJP in two ways. BJP made it unequivocally clear the present system will not be disturbed. As per economic backwardness in SCs, STs, OBCs it is sending signals it is open for discussion. As per EBCs in OCs it made a clever move in Rajasthan and Gujarat and threw a challenge in other parties to oppose a Constitution amendment, if required to include this in the 9th Schedule of Constitution. It is walking the tight rope with precision. And if BJP says, economic criteria will be made applicable to SCs, STs and OBCs, it will not be opposed by many in these sections, as there are more marginalized sections within these groupings who hold grudge on those enjoying the reservations for generations. Reverse discrimination of these sections will help BJP to convince the marginalized in these groups continuing the 50% quota as it is, with economic criteria and limiting the number of generations to one or two. But it takes times. Hence, BJP played its cards well and tried to keep the balance.
Coupled with the larger than life image of Modi Jee, the unified NDA going all out to win, the splintered Pariwar fighting for one-up-man ship, Media not able to penetrate the BJP through sources, the two-way fight turning into five way fight, it is any one's guess who will win. I do not hazard seat numbers but my analysis of 47% vote share to NDA and Pariwar slipping further and going to slip further, the win will be historic for Bihar and good days are ahead for Bihar, UP, Punjab and the whole of India.